Wynne prepares for 10-day trade trip to India | CP24.com

"ShepherdsDog" said
She's hoping India will set up sweatshops in Ontario

"shockedcanadian" said
inefficient schools, that will force teach your children about 6 genders and anal sex at 6,

"martin14" said
inefficient schools, that will force teach your children about 6 genders and anal sex at 6,

Ontario not facing ‘debt wall,’ says study of province’s fiscal health
Amid all of Canada’s bleak economic news, there may be a glimmer of hope about Ontario’s massive provincial debt.


....

To bolster her contention that Ontario’s debt — currently about $295 billion — is manageable, Block looked at its ratio to the province’s gross domestic product over the past 25 years.

She also factored in that during that time the stranded residual debt of the old Ontario Hydro, and the broader public sector debt from schools boards, colleges and hospitals was also added to the province’s tally.

“Part of the debt increase is due to the changes in accounting rules, not a result of profligate public spending (which is, per capita, the lowest in Canada),” Block wrote.

While Ontario’s debt-to-GDP ratio in 2014-15 was 39.4 per cent, without those accounting changes it would have been 35.9 per cent.

That level compares relatively favourably to the 1990s when, after the recession, it skyrocketed from 13.4 per cent in 1990-91 to 31.3 per cent in 1996-97.

At the same time, Ontario was paying an average of 10.9 per cent interest on its debt in 1990-91 compared to 3.7 per cent in 2014-15 with rates continuing to drop.

“Debt crises are rare, though events in both Greece and California are frequently cited in the media and can lend an unwarranted sense of panic to any exploration of this subject,” Block wrote.

“Three factors suggest that the province is not approaching a debt crisis. There is a continued appetite in financial markets for Ontario debt. That means that financial markets expect it will be repaid and that the provincial government is not approaching a debt wall,” she added.

“The continued fall in effective interest rates also support this, suggesting that the risk premium on Ontario’s debt is not rising. The stability of interest costs as a share of revenue indicates that this increased debt can continue to be serviced.”

...

The government also received some good news from Ontario’s independent fiscal watchdog on Wednesday.

The Financial Accountability Office of Ontario pored over last week’s Statistic Canada data showing the province’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.5. per cent in the third quarter of 2015.

“Importantly, third quarter growth was broad-based, with household spending, business investment, and net exports all contributing to the overall increase — a positive sign for potentially stronger and more balanced economic growth in 2016,” the office said.

"shockedcanadian" said
I read this article and would have posted it as a joke. Have you seen what Ms. Block represents?

Here is all you need from the article: Sheila Block, senior economist with the left-leaning Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.

She would gladly spend for today at the behest of the future. It's this short sightedness that has made the interest on the debt the third highest item in the budget outside of social services and healthcare. Maybe Ms. Block should instead consider how much of those billions could be applied to citizens instead of to paying down the debt. Nor would the province be forced to sell publicly run items such as Ontario Hydro.

Wynne is only in power because of the abuses of power of the OPP and the unions who have been punchdrunk at the trough for generations.

Ontario's 2015 economic growth a 'positive sign' for 2016: Watchdog

By Antonella Artuso, Queen's Park Bureau Chief

First posted: Wednesday, January 20, 2016 11:30 AM EST | Updated: Wednesday, January 20, 2016 02:40 PM EST
Charles Sousa

Ontario Finance Minister Charles Sousa talks to reporters at the conclusion of a meeting with Federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau and his provincial and territorial counterparts in Ottawa, Monday, December 21, 2015. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Fred Chartrand)


TORONTO - Ontario’s economy is not all doom and gloom, the province’s financial watchdog says.

The Financial Accountability Office (FAO) of Ontario — headed by Stephen LeClair — says the province showed stronger than projected economic growth last year.

The office analyzed the quarterly Ontario Economic Accounts (OEA) report released last week by the ministry of finance that identified growth at 3.5% annualized in the third quarter.

“Importantly, third quarter growth was broad-based, with household spending, business investment, and net exports all contributing to the overall increase — a positive sign for potentially stronger and more balanced economic growth in 2016,” a commentary by FAO analysts released Wednesday said.

“Based on the updated OEA data, it appears that household spending and residential construction were primary drivers of Ontario’s economic growth last year. Business investment in plant and equipment also grew strongly in 2015, but the export sector continued to underperform the rest of the economy.” Premier Kathleen Wynne has said that she expects Ontario to help propel Canada’s economy through the current economic slowdown.

The FAO says real GDP grew by 2.7%, household spending by 3.1%, residential construction by 6%, business investment by 7.3%, government spending by 1.4%, exports by 0.6%, and imports by 1.8%.

Glimmers of economic hope for Ontario on Bleak Friday
January has been the worst start to a year on record for global equities. But Ontario’s economy is picking up

y: Sunny Freeman Business Reporter, Published on Fri Jan 15 2016

Call it Bleak Friday: An 18-month tumble in the value of crude, the loonie and Canadian stocks culminated Friday in a devastating blow that saw all three indicators sink to recent lows.

The Toronto Stock Exchange fell to its lowest level since June 2013. The Canadian dollar closed at 68.82 cents (U.S.), reaching a 12-year low and continuing its longest downward spiral.

It’s not just a Canadian crisis. January has been the worst start to a year on record for global equities as investors worry about signs of a massive slowdown in Chinese growth and weaker terms of international trade.

Amid the global chaos, there was a glimmer of hope in Ontario economic data that suggested 2016 could usher in a long-predicted fundamental shift toward areas of the economy that have been overshadowed by oil.

A global crude crisis that saw oil close below $30 a barrel for the first time since 2003 on Friday is spooking investors as they eye a slower global growth outlook, a glut in U.S. production and the prospect of increased Iranian supplies once sanctions are lifted.

The TSX closed down 2 per cent at 12,074 Friday. The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 391 points, European stocks fell into a bear market and the Shanghai Composite Index wiped out gains boosted by state intervention.

The oil price crash has hit Canada particularly hard because of the outsized economic importance of the energy sector for the past few decades, said Jeff Rubin, author of The Carbon Bubble.

“The axis of economic growth is very much shifting back to the provinces that were in the rain shadow of the oil boom and Ontario would be the prime example,” said the senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation.

“It’s really a reorientation of the economy and an opportunity here for a new economic model.”

Signs of realignment in Canada’s economy are trickling in.

Data suggests the benefits of a weak loonie are starting to work their way through the economy, albeit slowly.

Ontario’s economy grew 0.9 per cent in the third quarter — almost double the rate of the previous quarter — as exports jumped three per cent, according to a provincial report released Friday.

The growth in exports was the biggest since 2013, thanks to a declining dollar that makes Canadian goods cheaper on world markets. Manufacturing rose 2.8 per cent, after falling 0.3 per cent in the previous quarter.

November trade data showed Canadian exports rose 0.4 per cent to $43.3 billion, reversing three months of declines. The increase would have been a more substantial 1.6 per cent, excluding a 6.6 per cent drop in energy exports.

Ontario added 35,000 jobs in December, the strongest growth of all provinces, which lowered its unemployment rate from 6.9 to 6.7 per cent. Meanwhile, Alberta shed 4,000 jobs last month to bring the total job loss in the oil-dependent province to 14,600 in 2015.

Since crude began its steady downward slide in mid-2014, much of the pain has been concentrated in the energy sector. But the hit to that sector — which accounts for less than 10 per cent of the economy, but a much larger share of exports and business investment — has impacted the entire economy.

The negative impact of the oil crisis has been immediate and acute, while the full impact of the corresponding depreciation of the loonie could be a three- to five-year process, the Bank of Canada and others have said.

Given the gathering economic storm clouds, an increasing number of economists believe the central bank will lower interest rates next week to encourage borrowing and drive the loonie lower. Some observers are calling for the dollar to reach new lows, below the 61.8 cents it reached in 2002.

That would herald an even bigger competitive advantage for dollar-sensitive sectors of the economy, such as manufacturing, film and tourism, which economists hope will eventually be able to fill the void left by the oil downturn.

The key to the economic turnaround, experts say, is patience.

Canada has successfully adapted to downturns in commodity cycles throughout its history — from furs to wheat and now oil — and there’s no reason to panic that it won’t happen now, said Stephen Gordon, professor of economics at Laval University.

“Yes, it was good while it lasted,” he said of the oil boom. “But it’s not a complete catastrophe now that it’s gone.”

Gordon said Canada is in the midst of another period of transformation that will see the economy look completely different by 2021.

In the meantime, economists are calling on Ottawa to include additional stimulus measures in the forthcoming budget to soften the pain of the transition process.

The Liberals campaigned on a promise to pour an additional $60 billion (Can.) into infrastructure projects over 10 years. But less than half that money, $17.4 billion, was earmarked to flow over the next four years.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau emphasized the importance of innovation and diversification to Canada’s economy at a visit to Google’s engineering headquarters in Waterloo this week.

He told reporters the government remains committed to investments in research and development, social housing, transit and energy efficiency, but declined to comment on whether spending will be fast-tracked in this year’s budget.

Canada will face a significant hurdle in jump-starting nonenergy-related sectors after falling slightly behind its peers on productivity, research and development, and innovation during the crude boom, said OECD economist Peter Jarrett.

“Hopefully, we can do better in the future as we shift into sectors that allow us more value-added (industries) than just the traditional primary commodity sectors.”

There is reason to be optimistic that Canada’s tech and innovation sectors are picking up steam — they have grown faster than any other on the Toronto Stock Exchange since 2013.

But manufacturing will still be a crucial part of the solution, Jarrett said. Though he expected data to show more positive benefits from the low loonie, he expects investment to return once the currency’s volatility settles.

“It takes a while to convince people that it’s durable and sustainable,” he said.

“We’ve got to give it a chance to work.”

Economist says economy is not all doom and gloom


By Ian MacAlpine, Kingston Whig-Standard

Thursday, January 21, 2016 5:47:35 EST PM


Canada's economy can be divided into two parts, a senior official at the Business Development Bank of Canada said on Thursday.

There are the seven provinces, including Ontario, with manufacturing bases benefiting from the low dollar and high exports to the United States; and Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador, whose economies depend on the price of oil.

And with Ontario in the first part, said Pierre Cleroux, who is vice-president, research, and chief economist at BDC, it is not all doom and gloom on the economic front in the province, despite the fact that the Canadian dollar is declining, the price of oil is low and the stock market is down.

"Despite all of that, the growth in Ontario is actually improving, as is the Ontario economy, but the Canadian economy not as much," Cleroux told about 85 members of the Greater Kingston Chamber of Commerce at the Holiday Inn.

Cleroux, who has been with BDC since 2012, titled his speech "Growth in Turbulent Times."

His main responsibility with BDC is to provide economic analyses and advice to the senior management team. He also helps interpret economic trends and their impact on businesses and looks after all marketing and industry research activities for BDC.

In his speech, he mentioned that the Chinese market is still growing but not at a very quick pace, Europe is coming out of recession and the United States economy is growing at a fast pace, which is good news for Ontario manufacturers and entrepreneurs.

"The fact that the dollar is low, it's not a sign that we're in recession or we are in trouble. Actually, in Canada our dollar is low because oil prices are low." he said. "Because we have a floating dollar, it's a great mechanism to readjust the economy."

He also said reasons for the low dollar include the strong U.S. dollar and Canada's interest rate policy.

Cleroux said the Ontario economy has created 80,000 new jobs in 2015, 12,000 of which are in manufacturing.

"That's a sign the manufacturing sector is doing well."

He said when job numbers go up, retail sales rise and the housing markets improve as well.

"When more people have jobs, that stimulates the housing market."

Growth has also been solid in the automotive sector over the past two years.

"The main reason for that is exports," he said. "Ontario's exports increased in 2014 and 2015."

He said that last year, automotive sector exports increased by 13 per cent, "which is very significant in one year."

Cleroux said automotive exports count for more than one-third of all Ontario exports. He also said exports in food and consumer goods improved by 17.8 per cent and forestry products were up 13 per cent.

"So we see a direct correlation between the performance of the U.S. economy in some sectors and our exports and our ability to sell to them. This is going to be the main driver of the Ontario economy," said Cleroux, who has bachelor of arts and a master of economics from Laval University, and a master of business administration from MIT Sloan School of Management. He has more than 25 years of experience as an economist, mainly in the public sector.

Before speaking in Kingston this week, he spoke to business people in Halifax and was told its economy benefited from the low Canadian dollar with one of its best tourism years in recent memory.

In an interview after his 30-minute speech, Cleroux said it could take a while before the price of oil and the Canadian dollar start to rise.

"It's going to take some time. We really have an over-supply of oil, and technology has really changed the game. There's more production coming from fracking in the U.S.," he said.

He believes crude oil prices will go back up, but not as high as the $100 a barrel in the recent past.

A further challenge for Canadian oil producers is the high cost of production, he said.

"So we have to readjust to this new reality."

But the low dollar is good news for any manufacturer wanting to export goods south of the border.

"There's a lot going on in the U.S. economy and it's a great time for Canadian business opportunities," he said. "The timing is perfect to looks at opportunities in the U.S. It could be in the service sector, manufacturing sector. Not only is the dollar low, but the demand is strong."

Before joining BDC, Cleroux worked for the government of Saudi Arabia as vice-president, business analysis in the National Industry Clusters Development Program.

Before that, Cleroux was the Quebec assistant deputy minister for economic development, innovation and export trade, worked for a private firm developing foreign investment and also worked for 12 years at the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.

Cleroux emphasized that while some provinces' economies are up, the oil-producing provinces are dragging down the numbers.

"So, overall, the Canadian economy is not going to have a strong growth; it's going to have a modest growth," Cleroux said. "On the other side, you have provinces where they produce oil and obviously right now they are struggling."

ian.macalpine@sunmedia.ca

Twitter.com @IanmacAlpine