 Conservatives take 12-point lead in new pollPolitical | 206442 hits | Feb 20 8:07 pm | Posted by: westmanguy  Stephen Harper's Conservatives have gained their strongest lead over the Liberals since first taking power in 2006, and have edged ahead in support on almost every key issue, according to a new Strategic Counsel poll.Commentsview comments in forum You need to be a member of CKA and be logged into the site, to comment on news. |
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Some very interesting stats:
Stephen Harper's Conservatives have gained their strongest lead over the Liberals since first taking power in 2006
* Conservatives: 39 per cent (+3)
* Liberals: 27 per cent (-3)
* NDP: 12 per cent (same)
* Green Party: 12 per cent (+2)
* Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (-1)
voters in Ontario are largely responsible for driving up Conservative support.
In Ontario, the Conservatives have overtaken the Liberals for the first time since July 2006, when the Liberals were at 39 per cent and the Tories at 41 percent. Here are the current standings in Ontario (percentage-point change from a Jan. 10-13 poll in brackets):
* Conservatives: 42 per cent (+5)
* Liberals: 34 per cent (-5)
* Green Party: 13 per cent (-1)
* NDP: 11 per cent (-1)
Most Canadians seem content with the current minority government -- 60 per cent feel that Canada is on the right track, with 28 per cent answering believing it's on the wrong track.
The Conservatives have also taken a lead over the Liberals when it comes to dealing with key issues:
* When respondents were asked which party would best be able to manage the economy during an economic slowdown, 38 per cent said the Conservatives and 25 per cent said the Liberals;
* Thirty-six per cent of respondents thought the Conservatives were best able to manage the Afghanistan mission, compared with 21 per cent for the Liberals;
* On the question of which party has the best plan for Canada's military and defence, 37 per cent answered Conservative and 19 per cent Liberal;
* As for who would spend taxpayers' money most wisely, 32 per cent said Conservative and 14 per cent Liberal; and,
* When asked which party's values most reflected their own, 28 per cent said Conservative and 21 per cent Liberal.
22 per cent felt the Conservatives had the highest standards of ethics and honesty, with the Liberals at 10 per cent.
Woohoo!
but at any rate will be interesting to see what happens when the budget is tabled..
And the CPC is leading in vote-rich Ontario!
however westend still not enough to give the tories a majority..
I think were doing fine in terms of a majority.
Yes, the west won't give us a majority, but were now leading in Ontario, and Quebecois aren't polarized to the Conservatives like in 2004, and even getting a nice 25 or so seats in Quebec would put us over the top.
The LIBRANOs anchor of the multicultural GTA is gone, gone, gone....
meanwhile Taliban Jack has joined DION in lala-land........
But if I see one poll that has Cons leading, and one with Libs leading, within the same week, then I back away from it.
But generally polls are are very shaky, because opinions change day to day to day, but this is still nice to hear.
Ontario: Going Conservative!
Oh, BTW:
http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/305411
Feb 20, 2008 07:09 PM
OTTAWA–A new poll suggests no federal party should be in a rush to force a spring election, with the Conservatives and Liberals locked in a virtual dead heat.
The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put the Tories at 35 per cent and the Liberals at 33 per cent, a statistical tie given the poll's 3.1-percentage-point margin of error.
Both parties remain well short of capturing majority support and neither appears to have strong momentum.
Support for the NDP and Green party slipped slightly to 13 per cent and nine per cent respectively.
And while the Bloc Quebecois enjoyed a commanding lead in Quebec with 35 per cent support, it was down seven points from the popular vote it captured in the 2006 election.
The poll was released todayy as the parties prepare to embark on a series of confidence votes next week that could topple Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority Conservative government.
The first and most likely trigger for an election will be Tuesday's budget. The NDP and Bloc have signalled that they intend to vote against the budget but the Liberals are torn over what to do.
Liberal Leader Stephane Dion says he'll wait to see the budget before deciding whether to pull the plug on the government.
Should the government survive the budget votes – the first of which is next Thursday – it's fate will be at stake again over a motion to extend Canada's combat mission in Afghanistan. That vote, which Harper has declared a matter of confidence, is expected sometime next month.
As well, Harper has threatened to call an election if the Liberal-dominated Senate doesn't pass his omnibus crime bill before March 1.
But Harris-Decima president Bruce Anderson said the poll suggests all parties would be wise to pull back from the election brink.
"If you're a political leader or a party looking for certainty or security of outcome, now is not the time to head into an election," Anderson said.
The numbers show there's "no slam dunk" likely for either the Tories or Liberals. Anderson said the poll suggests an election now would turn into "a neck-and-neck struggle" in almost every region of the country.
The lead has see-sawed back and forth between the Tories and Liberals several times over the past month.
Anderson said the latest telephone poll, conducted Feb. 14-17, suggests the emerging compromise between the two parties on Afghanistan has helped the Conservatives "neutralize" the issue and pull back into a slim lead.
The poll also found some modest good news for the Tories in vote-rich Ontario, where they climbed into a tie with the Liberals at 40 per cent. The NDP were at 11 per cent and the Greens at eight per cent.
In Quebec, the Tories and Liberals were in a tight race for second place, with 23 per cent and 22 per cent respectively. The NDP were at 12 per cent and the Greens at five per cent.
The poll of just over 1,000 Canadians is considered accurate within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times in 20. The margin of error for regional breakdowns is larger.
Canwest seems to lean Conservative, and CTV seems the most fair in my opinion.
Lets face facts, they are liberals the truth means nothing to them.
dont think it will be Dion..now Jack says the NDP will.. the bloc also.
but at any rate will be interesting to see what happens when the budget is tabled..
funny how these new numbers are exact opposite to what you've been trying to tell us
I love the hypocrisy of certain people on this site. When a poll says the Libs are in the lead, the standard answer is, "The only poll that matters is an election", yet, when their guy is in the lead, the answer is "Aren't polls wonderful?"
Just because we're rubbing it in dosen't really mean we believe in the numbers.
(from an evil right wing blog:
Graeme Richardson: Surely the Liberals can't support another Conservative budget?
John McCallum: But what we want to see is the budget. As Stephane Dion has said 101 times, he wants to see the budget. If it's good, we'll vote yes. If it's bad, we'll vote no. And we've named a number of things we want.
One is direct support for manufacturing which I've just described.
Second, we have paid down the debt enormously. We think a $3 billion reduction is enough this year, not $10 billion, which the Conservatives want to do, and we would inject that $7 billion immediately into infrastructure -- crumbling bridges, crumbling infrastructure. We want to leave to our future generations not just a lower debt but also a healthy infrastructure, healthy cities, public transit, better roads, bridges, and so on.
So those are two things we want to see in the budget.
So the 2 must haves for the liberals are money for (Ontario) manufacturing and money for infrastructure. If those are not there or sufficient, it's off to the election.
of course, this quote was before this poll results so we'll see if Dion dithers again.
anyways , with numbers like these an election might get delayed by the opposition . its clear the ndp would lost many seats if a vote were held today and liberals will be fighting for the ones they have instead of gaining any . unless they decide things won't get any better for them and figure to give it a try anyways .
well not sure what they will do , but if nothing else 4 by-elections are going down on march 17 .