[Newsbot]

Title: Canada's National Debt Clock : The Canadian Taxpayers Federation
Category: Misc CDN
Posted By: Freakinoldguy
Date: 2020-06-02 11:34:29
Canadian

[Freakinoldguy]

And here's the some other countries for comparison about their debt, but the scary part is that the GDP's of all the countries is going down just as fast as the national debt is going up. And, for the record the Fraser institutes clock would appear to be a little light when it comes to the real amount of debt.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

[CharlesAnthony]

Ultimately, none of that debt can be paid back. The monetary supplies will be inflated until the currencies are worthless. The survivors will be offered a brand new shiny token to replace the old token.

[Scape]

Wow, Japan nearly 300%. I wonder when that bubble will pop.

[BartSimpson]

Freakinoldguy Freakinoldguy:

And here's the some other countries for comparison about their debt, but the scary part is that the GDP's of all the countries is going down just as fast as the national debt is going up. And, for the record the Fraser institutes clock would appear to be a little light when it comes to the real amount of debt.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

US debt is actually much higher when you total up...

Federal Debt
State Debt
Local Debt
Unfunded government employee pension obligations
Unfunded Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid obligations

We're likely around 300% of GDP.

[Freakinoldguy]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

Freakinoldguy Freakinoldguy:

And here's the some other countries for comparison about their debt, but the scary part is that the GDP's of all the countries is going down just as fast as the national debt is going up. And, for the record the Fraser institutes clock would appear to be a little light when it comes to the real amount of debt.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

US debt is actually much higher when you total up...

Federal Debt
State Debt
Local Debt
Unfunded government employee pension obligations
Unfunded Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid obligations

We're likely around 300% of GDP.

A fact which means that, if our debt clock included all our provincial and municipal and other gov't debt we'd be in pretty much the same financial shape as you people and that's a pretty scary concept.

Everyone on that lists debt definitely dwarfs their ability to pay it back or even make the interest payments without bankrupting their countries.

So what happens next when everyone defaults on their loans? I suppose if history repeats itself hyper inflation is the next step which will means at some point I'll have to fill the bed of my pickup with $100.00 bills just so I can go to the store and buy a loaf of bread.

$1:

In 1922, a loaf of bread cost 163 marks. By September 1923, during hyperinflation, the price crawled up to 1,500,000 marks and at the peak of hyperinflation, in November 1923, a loaf of bread costs 200,000,000,000 marks.

https://historydaily.org/germany-hyperinflation

[Winnipegger]

Canada's federal debt is actually much larger than stated in the "Debt Clock".

Directly from the Department of Finance, last year's budget (March 2019) as a PDF document, 5.78MB and 464 pages: Budget 2019

Search for the phrase "Summary Statement of Transactions". It'll show up in a table of contents, but keep searching until you find a page with that title. You don't need to read the whole document, this one page summarizes the entire budget. Look for the title "Fiscal Position"; this describes debt. The line "Total liabilities" is the actual debt. Notice for fiscal year 2019-2020, it's "1,219.3"; that's in billions of dollars. That means Canada's federal debt is $1.2193 trillion! They then do some funny math: subtract "Financial assets", which is everything in all federal government back accounts. The result is "Net debt": $793.7 billion. Then they subtract "Non-financial assets": $88.3 billion. This gives "Federal debt", which is $705.4 billion. What is "Non-financial assets"? That's the estimated market value of every federal government owned building, land, desks, computers, telephones, vehicles, and any other asset they can find. Yes, land is included. I don't think they included vast tracts of undeveloped land, but they do include land in cities that federal government buildings sit on.

Now tell me, if you have a mortgage on your house, could you subtract the current balance of your bank account, current balance of your retirement savings, employer pension plan, and every investment, then claim your mortgage is "only" the difference? And what if your mortgage was larger than the current market value of your house? How many minutes before the bank would foreclose?

Ps. The page "Summary Statement of Transactions" has existed in every budget since 1993. I'm not sure which budget started it. It wasn't in 1984. But it is in every budget since 1993. Not all budgets included "Total liabilities", depending which government is in power. Some governments want to hide it. I give kudos to the Trudeau government for including it, even though they were spending like a drunken sailor on shore leave before the current crisis.

[Robair]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

Freakinoldguy Freakinoldguy:

And here's the some other countries for comparison about their debt, but the scary part is that the GDP's of all the countries is going down just as fast as the national debt is going up. And, for the record the Fraser institutes clock would appear to be a little light when it comes to the real amount of debt.

https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html

US debt is actually much higher when you total up...

Federal Debt
State Debt
Local Debt
Unfunded government employee pension obligations
Unfunded Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid obligations

We're likely around 300% of GDP.

The U.S. is special though. When the greenback was taken off gold, the deal was made with Saudi Arabia that anyone buying oil from them has to use American dollars. In exchange for fighter jets etc.
Now it's 80% of global commodities are in American dollars or some stupid number like that.
Every country that uses oil has to have a pile of American cash to keep running.
Result is there are so many American dollars on the globe that they can print all kinds of money without devaluing the greenback.
Look at the first covid relief payout... an insane amount of money. To the portion of the population that DON'T EVEN NEED IT!

[BeaverFever]

What’s missing from this discussion is the fact that this debt is not immediately payable, much/most of it is payable over several decades, during which time the economy and therefore the ability to make payments always grows. In the year 2000 for example, Canada’s GDP was $742B in USD. Last year it was $1.74 Trillion , more than double. Also, interest rates are at all-time historic lows. Interest payments on debt are currently 8% of revenue so at face value the claim that countries can’t afford the interest payments doesn’t hold water.

Also missing from this discussion is that unlike Weimar Republic, this is market debt sold to sophisticated private market investors in the form of bonds. If it was really true that this debt and the interest payments were at risk of default, investors would not be buying these bonds and the debt would therefore not exist. Consider the fact that these bonds pay them almost zero interest. Risky investments have to offer high interest rates in order to attract investors, if government debt was really so risky that it’s likely to default then investors would not be buying this debt with almost no interest promised. The reality is the investors are continuing to buy this debt at such low rates because it is in fact guaranteed not to default.

Japans debt to GDP has been over 100% since the 1990s and over 200% for over a decade

[bootlegga]

Freakinoldguy Freakinoldguy:

So what happens next when everyone defaults on their loans? I suppose if history repeats itself hyper inflation is the next step which will means at some point I'll have to fill the bed of my pickup with $100.00 bills just so I can go to the store and buy a loaf of bread.

$1:

In 1922, a loaf of bread cost 163 marks. By September 1923, during hyperinflation, the price crawled up to 1,500,000 marks and at the peak of hyperinflation, in November 1923, a loaf of bread costs 200,000,000,000 marks.

https://historydaily.org/germany-hyperinflation

That's a total red herring.

The Weimar Republic was dealing with massive reparation payments to the Allies as well as had lost most of its industrial heartland (and hence its ability to pay those reparations). Those reparations alone totalled close to half a TRILLION dollars if adjusted to 2020 dollars. That's in addition to trying to pay for everything else a national government needs to pay for.

Canada has neither raparation payments nor a loss of land and industry to a foreign occupier.

Yes, we have decreased economic activity due to the pandemic and oil shock, but we're not paying money to another country that does nothing to boost our own economy. The CERB and other beenfits the federal government is paying out now is keeping at least part of the economy running.

And as Beave noted, this debt is not something that comes due at the end of the month or end of the year. The vast majority of the debt is in bonds payable 20, 30 even 40 years from now, by which time our economy should have not only recovered, but grown substantially.

How big will our GDP (and therefore tax revenues be in 2050)? If history is any indication, it should be much larger than it is today - 40 years ago, Canada's GDP stood at $273 Billion, now it's $1.7 trillion, a six fold growth. I can't predict the future, but even half of that gives us plenty of financial capacity to pay off our debt.

The CTF and other right wing groups try to do is convince Canadians that austerity and corporate tax cuts are the way to go, but as history has shown over the past 40 years, they don't work for anyone but the top 5%, and leave the rest of us average schmoes in the dust fighting over the scraps.

Thanks but not thanks.

[Martin15]

Robair Robair:

Result is there are so many American dollars on the globe that they can print all kinds of money without devaluing the greenback.

That's almost true, but more or less good enough.

American oil hegemony means it will never be completely worthless.

Our currency, on the other hand....

[Martin15]

bootlegga bootlegga:

And as Beave noted, this debt is not something that comes due at the end of the month or end of the year. The vast majority of the debt is in bonds payable 20, 30 even 40 years from now, by which time our economy should have not only recovered, but grown substantially.

How big will our GDP (and therefore tax revenues be in 2050)? If history is any indication, it should be much larger than it is today - 40 years ago, Canada's GDP stood at $273 Billion, now it's $1.7 trillion, a six fold growth. I can't predict the future, but even half of that gives us plenty of financial capacity to pay off our debt.

The unlimited growth with limited resources,
unlimited immigration with unlimited social pressures,
oh but we have to reduce our pollution, again with more and more growth.....

and a demography that will crash soon enough.


The leftist delusions keep on deluding; one day, they will figure it out.
Course, it will be way too late, but nevermind that.

[bootlegga]

Martin15 Martin15:

bootlegga bootlegga:

And as Beave noted, this debt is not something that comes due at the end of the month or end of the year. The vast majority of the debt is in bonds payable 20, 30 even 40 years from now, by which time our economy should have not only recovered, but grown substantially.

How big will our GDP (and therefore tax revenues be in 2050)? If history is any indication, it should be much larger than it is today - 40 years ago, Canada's GDP stood at $273 Billion, now it's $1.7 trillion, a six fold growth. I can't predict the future, but even half of that gives us plenty of financial capacity to pay off our debt.

The unlimited growth with limited resources,
unlimited immigration with unlimited social pressures,
oh but we have to reduce our pollution, again with more and more growth.....

and a demography that will crash soon enough.


The leftist delusions keep on deluding; one day, they will figure it out.
Course, it will be way too late, but nevermind that.

So the economy is going to crash then? Feel free to let us know, where and when.

Growth will continue, even though it may be slower than it was in the past. And the economy will shift as it always has.

You're correct that Canada will shift over the next 40 years, but our economy will shift with it. In 1920, Canada was largely an agarian nation with little manufacturing and urbanization. In 1960, we were highly industrialized and close to half of Canadians had moved to cities and urban areas. Today, most Canadians work in the service sector, providing legal, medical, educational, tourist, food and other services, and 80% of Canadians live in cities. Who knows what Canadian society will look like in 30 or 40 years? We might be crawling around in a radioactive wasteland (at which point this conversation is moot) or we could be living in some sort of high tech utopia, or anywhere in between.

The Boomers have had an outsized impact on the economy, but all that means is that the economy shifts to meet their demand. In the 1970s, it meant huge increases in car sales and post-secondary spending. In the 1990s, it was housing and other major goods, then shifted to prolonging their youth (Viagra, Hair Club for Men, etc in the early 2000s) and over the next decade or two, it will shift to healthcare needs like nursing homes and pharmacare.

Some of that will have to be paid for by the government, but a fair chunk will be paid for by the Boomers themselves because not all of them will want the basic level of services the government will pay for. Those who have the funds (pensions, RRSPs, etc.) will continue to pay taxes to help pay for those who do not.

Private nursing homes are big business, as I found out last year. A private suite in a nursing home can run up to $5,000/month in Edmonton, depending on which facility you live in and how much space you want. And that all comes from the individual, not the taxpayer (at least in Alberta). Here, you only get a subsidized rate if you have medical needs like dementia, Alzheimer's etc. Otherwise, you pay the full rate on your own.

Eventually, we'll see a huge boom in end of life healhtcare, which government will largely pay for, and funeral services and estate sales, which the Boomers (and their children) will pay for.

You can continue to live in fear of some economic collapse that has been predicted many times, but I prefer to plan ahead and work towards (and hope for) the best.

[Freakinoldguy]

bootlegga bootlegga:

Freakinoldguy Freakinoldguy:

So what happens next when everyone defaults on their loans? I suppose if history repeats itself hyper inflation is the next step which will means at some point I'll have to fill the bed of my pickup with $100.00 bills just so I can go to the store and buy a loaf of bread.

$1:

In 1922, a loaf of bread cost 163 marks. By September 1923, during hyperinflation, the price crawled up to 1,500,000 marks and at the peak of hyperinflation, in November 1923, a loaf of bread costs 200,000,000,000 marks.

https://historydaily.org/germany-hyperinflation

That's a total red herring.

The Weimar Republic was dealing with massive reparation payments to the Allies as well as had lost most of its industrial heartland (and hence its ability to pay those reparations). Those reparations alone totalled close to half a TRILLION dollars if adjusted to 2020 dollars. That's in addition to trying to pay for everything else a national government needs to pay for.

Canada has neither raparation payments nor a loss of land and industry to a foreign occupier.

Yes, we have decreased economic activity due to the pandemic and oil shock, but we're not paying money to another country that does nothing to boost our own economy. The CERB and other beenfits the federal government is paying out now is keeping at least part of the economy running.

And as Beave noted, this debt is not something that comes due at the end of the month or end of the year. The vast majority of the debt is in bonds payable 20, 30 even 40 years from now, by which time our economy should have not only recovered, but grown substantially.

How big will our GDP (and therefore tax revenues be in 2050)? If history is any indication, it should be much larger than it is today - 40 years ago, Canada's GDP stood at $273 Billion, now it's $1.7 trillion, a six fold growth. I can't predict the future, but even half of that gives us plenty of financial capacity to pay off our debt.

The CTF and other right wing groups try to do is convince Canadians that austerity and corporate tax cuts are the way to go, but as history has shown over the past 40 years, they don't work for anyone but the top 5%, and leave the rest of us average schmoes in the dust fighting over the scraps.

Thanks but not thanks.

So riddle me this. If my claim about hyperinflation is a red herring and was only due to the Weimar Republics reparation payments and losing the Ruhr? How would you explain these other cases of hyperinflation.

Venezuela, Hungary, Zimbabwe, and Yugoslavia have all experienced periods of hyperinflation.

Here are the main drivers of hyperinflation and it isn't war reparations or losing part of your country, although they did contribute in Germany's case:

$1:

Hyperinflation has two main causes: an increase in the money supply and demand-pull inflation. The former happens when a country's government begins printing money to pay for its spending. As it increases the money supply, prices rise as in regular inflation.


The other cause, demand-pull inflation, occurs when a surge in demand outstrips supply, sending prices higher. This can happen due to increased consumer spending due to a growing economy, a sudden rise in exports, or more government spending.


The two often go hand-in-hand. Instead of tightening the money supply to stop inflation, the government might continue to print more money. With too much currency sloshing around, prices skyrocket. Once consumers realize what is happening, they expect continued inflation. They buy more now to avoid paying a higher price later. That excessive demand aggravates inflation. It's even worse if they stockpile goods and create shortages.

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-hype ... 0inflation.

And now that the US got the rest of the world to drop the Gold Standard so they could print money at will, it's turned out to have affected alot more countries than just them.

As for your and Beave's theories about paying off the debt, well I've got some bad news for you. That theory is based on having a stable debt load which if you're continuing to borrow money to pay for your services and obligations it won't be stable for long and will continue to increase. A fact which pretty much renders repayment of both your ever increasing interest and ever increasing national debt load dead because much like personal debt. If you can't service your debt and keep continuing to pile more on it you'll eventually hit a tipping point that will require you to go bankrupt.

The only avenue of escape the Gov't has over normal people is, that in cases of debt overload they can keep printing money which, in turn will eventually lead to hyperinflation if let go.

For example these countries learned the hard way that you can't spend yourself out of debt.

https://www.tharawat-magazine.com/facts ... countries/

And here are 7 more that are on the brink.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/bu ... /31164239/

But the scary part is that the world debt clock shows first world countries spiraling downward into the same type of debt scenarios as the ones above got caught in. But I do find it odd that people on the left keep lecturing us about changing our ways so we can save the planet but, completely ignore changing our ways to maintain the financial health of the same planet they claim they want to save.

[Robair]

Martin15 Martin15:

American oil hegemony means it will never be completely worthless.

Our currency, on the other hand....

Eggzackery the point I was attempting to illustrate.

Not comparing apples to apples.