[BartSimpson]

In a nutshell, China is far closer to the former USSR or Yugoslavia as they were before they broke up. While we may think of it as one country, the fact is that it is a miasma of languages, cultures, and assimilated and currently dormant nationalities. When China finally fails I only hope it does so on the Soviet model as opposed to the Yugoslav model.

[EyeBrock]

It would be nice if some of those 'regions' within China became friendly nations that were interested in a democratic or a more open society.

[FieryVulpine]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

3. China is right now rife with sectarian problems. The rural populations are fed up with the corruption of what are essentialy feudal regimes at the local level. They've had violent mine strikes in the past year, they've had farm strikes, they've had strikes in their shipyards, and then the collapse of the Western economies has left tens of millions unemployed and homeless as Chinese factories have been shuttered. The country is a powder keg. Heck, just look at the vast effort they're investing in suppressing the Nobel Prize award to a mostly harmless man. That's not the act of a powerful government, that's the act of a scared regime.

China is one Boris Yeltsin away from collapse.

I heard that China bought up a lot of the United States' currency and its debt. If and when the United States defaults on its debts, then China is pretty much up the creek without a paddle.

Just note that it is hearsay on my part.

[BartSimpson]

FieryVulpine FieryVulpine:

I heard that China bought up a lot of the United States' currency and its debt. If and when the United States defaults on its debts, then China is pretty much up the creek without a paddle.

Just note that it is hearsay on my part.

I agree. The USA is right now facing inflation, despite the Obama and Wall Street wonks saying the real threat is deflation. The Federal Reserve exacerbated the issue by ginning up another $600 billion in fiat currency this week and the result is that the dollar is dropping in value. Net result is retail prices are climbing going into Christmas and that's not good for anyone.

The Chinese are hosed in this because they own so much of the US debt. They literally started this depression two years ago when they dumped 10% of their Treasuries on the world market to punish Bush for questioning their monetary policy.

The result was the dollar crumbled and who got hit the hardest? China did! That's because first their dollar holdings took a hit and they got stuck in the paradox that if they sold any more dollars the remainder of their dollars would drop even further. Second, as the dollar dropped even though the CNY is pegged to it, Chinese exports to the US tumbled as US buyers had to husband funds for non-Chinese orders. Third, the Chinese took a delayed hit as their factories started closing for want of US orders.

Where it stands now is if the dollar catches a cold, the CNY catches a fever.