[EyeBrock]

ShepherdsDog ShepherdsDog:

China is not even the superpower of Asia. They need to be bitch slapped back into their place. Their military is mostly show, good for oppressing unarmed protesters.If push came to shove they might end up with Iraqi Syndrome...you know, where they go from having the Nth largest army in the world to having the 2nd largest army in China, in 72 hours.

Tsk tsk Shep. Your piece of logic will surely disappoint those posters who revel in the UK’s current difficulties.

I agree, China is a house of cards that could topple any minute. The Communist regime there will end as all oppressive regimes do and China will splinter along ethnic and religious lines.

[CommanderSock]

ShepherdsDog ShepherdsDog:

China is not even the superpower of Asia. They need to be bitch slapped back into their place. Their military is mostly show, good for oppressing unarmed protesters.If push came to shove they might end up with Iraqi Syndrome...you know, where they go from having the Nth largest army in the world to having the 2nd largest army in China, in 72 hours.

Iraq didn't have industrial capacity like China has. Iraq purchased most of its weapons (stripped down) from America and Russia and had no standard system of operation.


China manufactures its weapons domestically. It has the capability to do so. It also has nukes. And it's building nuclear submarines to put them in.

Most importantly, Iraq wasn't the world 2nd largest economy and creditor to the western world. Iraq was on the brink of bankruptcy in 1991.

Comparing China and Iraq is comparing apples to...well, rust and dust.

China is more comparable to Germany post 1871. Militaristic, centralized, and rapidly industrializing.

And Chinese culture is at home with dictatorships. If the Communists collapse, the alternative won’t be western democratic parties. It will most likely be another dictatorship of some sort.

[EyeBrock]

I think the effectiveness of the PRC's military is over blown and untested. Their equipment lags far behind equivalent western stuff in many areas.

I remember how scared we all were of the Russians until we saw them up close, in tatty uniforms driving crappy jeeps around Addis Ababa.

Also, outside the shiny cities, China is a rural and backwards nation. It’s Achilles heel is it’s authoritarian nature.

You might be right on the comparison with Bismark’s Germany. It didn’t end too well for the Reich though eh?

[ShepherdsDog]

So to use the German analogy, China will lose its 'empire' in about 30 yrs. I guess that's buh bye to Tibet and Xinjiang(East Turkestan) then.

[CommanderSock]

I actually agree with both of you here. If China finds itself in a stupid war such as WW1, and it ends up in a standoff between itself and its two or three allies, versus 20 or more nations, with 5 of them being the most powerful in the world, yes, China might end up like Germany indeed.

But China's rise is still very similar to Germany's. Whether or not the story plays out in the same manner, with China getting into intricate alliances that are eventually set off into a full scale pan Asiatic war is yet to be determined, although all signs do point in that direction.

Currently, as it stands NATO and Japan would most likely smash China anywhere at sea. But beyond that I can't see us being successful. A land war, if it happened would end in disaster for NATO.

A unified western UN force could only hold the Chinese in North Korea to a draw, this was when China was battered, bruised, and morally crushed by Japan in WW2. They still could raise an army of millions at a whim (Chinese organization is second only to German?).

Actually I'm not even sure where I'm going with this. All else I can say is China isn't going to allow itself to be humiliated again, and they're no Iraq, Iran or even Soviet Russia. They were the only one of two countries in Asia not to be colonized (don't quote me on that, there might be more).

Yeah sorry, I know..off topic.

[EyeBrock]

I think the China and Bismark's Germany is a pretty good analogy Sock. A very worrying one too!

[CommanderSock]

EyeBrock EyeBrock:

I think the China and Bismark's Germany is a pretty good analogy Sock. A very worrying one too!

Well, I'd rather have a strong UK than a strong China, that's for sure. But it's one of those situations we all hope plays out well for everyone in the long term.

[andyt]

CommanderSock CommanderSock:

I actually agree with both of you here. If China finds itself in a stupid war such as WW1, and it ends up in a standoff between itself and its two or three allies, versus 20 or more nations, with 5 of them being the most powerful in the world, yes, China might end up like Germany indeed.

But China's rise is still very similar to Germany's. Whether or not the story plays out in the same manner, with China getting into intricate alliances that are eventually set off into a full scale pan Asiatic war is yet to be determined, although all signs do point in that direction.

Currently, as it stands NATO and Japan would most likely smash China anywhere at sea. But beyond that I can't see us being successful. A land war, if it happened would end in disaster for NATO.

A unified western UN force could only hold the Chinese in North Korea to a draw, this was when China was battered, bruised, and morally crushed by Japan in WW2. They still could raise an army of millions at a whim (Chinese organization is second only to German?).

Actually I'm not even sure where I'm going with this. All else I can say is China isn't going to allow itself to be humiliated again, and they're no Iraq, Iran or even Soviet Russia. They were the only one of two countries in Asia not to be colonized (don't quote me on that, there might be more).

Yeah sorry, I know..off topic.

You really think we'd have WWIII with China? A land or even large scale naval battles? I think nukes make that unlikely. The thing that scared NATO about Russia was that it was right there - could roll into Western Europe in a matter of days. China isn't in the same geographic position.

I posted a book review here recently where the author's thesis was that Turkey (the newly risen dominant Muslim power) and Japan would go to war with the US. That the war would be fought in space, and that the US would win.

[BartSimpson]

All of this prognostication about Chinese power reminds me of how the West used to think so highly of the Soviets and then, in turn, the Iraqis.

I remember everyone in Washington and Newport being utterly surprised when the Soviets collapsed because a mere municipal mayor challenged them.

Then I recall how the Iraqis were going to, as the media said, SLAUGHTER us and NATO wiped out stores of body bags all across the USA and Europe preparing for NATO forces to suffer up to 100,000 dead when we confronted the 'far superior' Iraqis. Uh-huh.

Now while I am concerned about Chinese aggression being unchecked, as that will merely encourage more Chinese aggression, I'm less concerned about the Chinese taking on the US or even the UK.

Why?

1. Like it or not, the US and UK have sufficient capacity to shoot down all of the Chinese ICBMs and the Chinese know it.

2. The Chinese can't figure out how to build and operate an aircraft carrier and that's due to the unique culture of their government. Meaning until they ditch Communism their navy will never be on par with the US, UK, France, or Japan. Or Taiwan.

3. China is right now rife with sectarian problems. The rural populations are fed up with the corruption of what are essentialy feudal regimes at the local level. They've had violent mine strikes in the past year, they've had farm strikes, they've had strikes in their shipyards, and then the collapse of the Western economies has left tens of millions unemployed and homeless as Chinese factories have been shuttered. The country is a powder keg. Heck, just look at the vast effort they're investing in suppressing the Nobel Prize award to a mostly harmless man. That's not the act of a powerful government, that's the act of a scared regime.

China is one Boris Yeltsin away from collapse.

[Zipperfish]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

All of this prognostication about Chinese power reminds me of how the West used to think so highly of the Soviets and then, in turn, the Iraqis.

...

Then I recall how the Iraqis were going to, as the media said, SLAUGHTER us and NATO wiped out stores of body bags all across the USA and Europe preparing for NATO forces to suffer up to 100,000 dead when we confronted the 'far superior' Iraqis. Uh-huh.

That wasn't the media, that was government propaganda, Bart. It was the Bush administration playing up the threat posed by Saddam Hussein, and the media just willingly went along. Any serious inquiry--and there were many at the time, contrary to popular opinion--would have easily demonstrated that the Iraqi government would fall within days, if not hours.

China is not the USSR. They are much more dynamic and subject to change, so to me, I'd be looking at the hope that they will evolve from their present system adn that we can work to gether to sovle the big issues tackling humanity right now, insteads of sabre-rattling. Imagine!

[EyeBrock]

That would be nice Zip. Somehow I don’t think it will happen that way though. I think Sock’s view that the present nasty regime would be replaced by another dictatorship is more likely.

[BartSimpson]

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

That wasn't the media, that was government propaganda, Bart. It was the Bush administration playing up the threat posed by Saddam Hussein, and the media just willingly went along. Any serious inquiry--and there were many at the time, contrary to popular opinion--would have easily demonstrated that the Iraqi government would fall within days, if not hours.

I'm talking about 1991, not 2003.

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

China is not the USSR. They are much more dynamic and subject to change, so to me, I'd be looking at the hope that they will evolve from their present system adn that we can work to gether to sovle the big issues tackling humanity right now, insteads of sabre-rattling. Imagine!

No, they are less dynamic and less subject to change in the ways that actually matter. While the ChiCom government is willing to allow free enterprise (of a sort) the thing is that they mistakenly believe they can control it. They can't. They think they can model themselves after Singapore but they got it wrong. Singapore succeeds because although it is an authoritarian government, they are one of the most transparent regimes in the world and they do not tolerate the level of corruption that is endemic in China. The commissars in China are facing the reality that the people will soon have to be reckoned with and that's why they're cracking down on freedoms. Really, they're trying to close Pandora's Box.

[Zipperfish]

EyeBrock EyeBrock:

That would be nice Zip. Somehow I don’t think it will happen that way though. I think Sock’s view that the present nasty regime would be replaced by another dictatorship is more likely.

Well, on human rights and freedoms, China is a lot better than it was a couple of decades ago, on the plus side. On the minus side, the US is a lot worse. Maybe they can meet in the middle.

The fact is that it doesn't matter if it was China or the US or India, or France or Germany or Japan or Brazil or whoever. It doesn't matter who the dominant players are, empires eventually compete and then collide. You can dress it up in human rights, or religious ideals, but really it's no more than two packs of primates competing for territory.

I'm a dreamer and I hope once, just once, we could listen to the voices of reason instead of the insistent beat of the warmongers, and act like humans insetad of baboons. If we focussed on our common humanity instead of our colours, we could work with China and solve the daunting challenges facing humanity.

[martin14]

You watched too much Star Trek Zip.

[Zipperfish]

martin14 martin14:

You watched too much Star Trek Zip.

Probably listen to too much music from the early 70s too.