[Proculation]

Strutz Strutz:

EyeBrock EyeBrock:

Yea, socialists are a waste, but at least they contest ridings in every province and territory.

The Bloc...why do we put up with this?

Indeed. I've wondered in the elections that have included them, where the voters of Quebec would lean if the Bloc was not on the ballot. Any guesses?

Before the Bloc, Quebec voted Liberals. Except maybe with Mulroney.

[Mustang1]

Anyone that gets Canadian politics won't count out Iggy or Liberals before any election. Firstly, pre-election polls are notoriously unreliable (and history has shown numerous times that election issues/conduct can radically alter numbers) and open to interpretation, secondly, the Tories haven't necessarily shone in power, so why reward them with an electoral mandate? Where votes make an electoral difference - in Ontario and Quebec - i don't see the great silent majority, especially in Ontario, simply discarding the Liberals only to grant the Conservatives a majority. Doesn't wash

I'll wait and see till the election does indeed start

[Praxius]

ridenrain ridenrain:

Voters want stability and the Harper gov., the longest running minority in Canadian history, has proven itself in a very harsh climate. I think they have a very good chance at it, expecially if we occupy other voters with bugs on TV screens..

Ok, the bug's gone

But voters may want stability, they don't want a Harper Gov.

They may have won two minorites, but the majority of canadians didn't vote Conservative.

Thus, the Majority of canadians don't want a Harper Gov.

I might not even be so opposed to a Conservative Government if Harper was replaced, but I have no trust in his abilities or most of the people he picks.

[Praxius]

PublicAnimalNo9 PublicAnimalNo9:

Wow, so quick to condemn a man who for 4 years with a minority government has been lucky if he can even wipe his ass without "permission" from the Opposition.
And you compare that to 13 years of Liberal lies, increased taxes, criminally mismanaged programs and severely reduced provincial transfers?
The partisanship in this country is disurbing to say the least.

If the Conservatives and Harper were such great leaders as they should be, the other parties wouldn't be in such an uproar or out of control as it may seem.

The fact that he and the Conservatives haven't won the trust of any of the other parties to deal with them, and the majority of Canandians still won't give them a majority, clearly shows they're not fit to run this country with total majority powers.

And the Liberals arn't any better, which is why I vote NDP.

Hell, I'd vote the Bloc if I could if it meant the Libs or Cons wouldn't win another government for a while.

[Praxius]

bootlegga bootlegga:

Dodge...who was the first PM in to ever prorogue Parliament?

P.S. That's why it's the "longest running minority", not because it's stable.

Indeed... he Prorogued for unjustified reasons, which the Gov. General shouldn't have entertained as a Coalition is perfectly legal in our democracy, and it was used quite well during WWI and again I believe on a Provincial level in Ontario a few years back.

Now that he pulled this lame stunt, he now opened the door for any future Prime Minister to Prorogue government if they face a non-confidence vote.

His minority is a farce and if Dion wasn't in as Liberal Leader and didn't pull the Carbon Tax crap, the Conservatives would have been gone.

The Cons won another minority because of the Liberals screwup.

But guess which party has been continually gaining seats? The NDP.

If the Liberals and Cons keep up these silly games, they're going to blow it big time.

[EyeBrock]

Mustang1 Mustang1:

Anyone that gets Canadian politics won't count out Iggy or Liberals before any election. Firstly, pre-election polls are notoriously unreliable (and history has shown numerous times that election issues/conduct can radically alter numbers) and open to interpretation, secondly, the Tories haven't necessarily shone in power, so why reward them with an electoral mandate? Where votes make an electoral difference - in Ontario and Quebec - i don't see the great silent majority, especially in Ontario, simply discarding the Liberals only to grant the Conservatives a majority. Doesn't wash

I'll wait and see till the election does indeed start

It will be another minority mustang, Lib or CPC, it's really too close to tell and the percentage/seat advantage will depend on who fucks up the least during the campaign.

Both Iggy and Harper have elements within their parties that can easily screw things up for them in a campaign.

I wouldn't like to call the next one.

[DerbyX]

Praxius Praxius:

bootlegga bootlegga:

Dodge...who was the first PM in to ever prorogue Parliament?

P.S. That's why it's the "longest running minority", not because it's stable.

Indeed... he Prorogued for unjustified reasons, which the Gov. General shouldn't have entertained as a Coalition is perfectly legal in our democracy, and it was used quite well during WWI and again I believe on a Provincial level in Ontario a few years back.

Now that he pulled this lame stunt, he now opened the door for any future Prime Minister to Prorogue government if they face a non-confidence vote.

His minority is a farce and if Dion wasn't in as Liberal Leader and didn't pull the Carbon Tax crap, the Conservatives would have been gone.

The Cons won another minority because of the Liberals screwup.

But guess which party has been continually gaining seats? The NDP.

If the Liberals and Cons keep up these silly games, they're going to blow it big time.

Gaining seats?

As of 21-Aug-09 threehundredeight has this as a current seat distribution. I like this site. It does a detailed analysis and factors in polling bias and regional seat bias rather then simply report overall support.



From 2008 election
Lib +39
CPC -25
NDP -12
Bloc NC
Green NC

I like their party analysis bit too. I can easily agree with it as I like the NDP and Greens but don't see them as better able to lead the government which is why I'd like to see a more concrete cooperation between the 3 left parties.

NDP: Compared to the two major parties, the NDP is seen as a less effective party but not a particularly 'mean' party. They're considered out of touch (41%), inefficient (39%), weak (37%), foolish (32%), but also compassionate (30%). The two major parties didn't have a positive aspect in their top five. The NDP aren't seen as strong (7%), exciting (7%), or efficient (8%).

Lib: So, the Liberals are seen virtually the same way as the Conservatives, except inefficient (42%) replaces uncaring (37%). They're also arrogant (43%), out of touch (41%), dishonest (38%), and secretive (32%). They aren't seen as exciting (5%), down to earth (9%), or honest (10%).

CPC: So the Conservatives are seen as arrogant (55%), secretive (48%), out of touch (43%), uncaring (37%), and dishonest (33%). Not exactly positive. And they aren't seen as exciting (3%), compassionate (5%), or open (11%). Ouch.

Green: Finally, the Greens. They're seen similarly as the NDP: weak (50%), inefficient (38%), out of touch (38%), down to earth (35%), foolish (29%), and compassionate (29%). They aren't seen as strong (2%), efficient (7%), secretive (8%), or exciting (8%).

Sadly I agree with your assessment about Dion and the carbon tax. He stood on principle and kept to his plan despite his advisors telling him the voters weren't buying it. I much preferred Dion and his platform to Iggy but I'm not in any way convinced Layton and the NDP are up to the task of governing.

[stepped-on]

Since the 1980's the country has been moving more towards the right. Maybe not socially (social progress shouldn't be defined as left and right) but neo-liberal economic practice is certainly a conservative one. Besides this the liberals don't really have anything to run on. Iggy is still trying to define himself and his policies and he is going to have a hard time selling himself to the left-leaning element of the party. If he can steal enough conservative seats he might have a chance.

[Praxius]

Well I base my previous opinion on this:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/stor ... esday.html

".... Bloc Québécois candidates were elected in 50 ridings, while NDP candidates took 37 seats, a gain of seven seats over the last election. Two Independents also held on to their seats....

While in the election before that they gained seats.

[Mustang1]

EyeBrock EyeBrock:

Mustang1 Mustang1:

Anyone that gets Canadian politics won't count out Iggy or Liberals before any election. Firstly, pre-election polls are notoriously unreliable (and history has shown numerous times that election issues/conduct can radically alter numbers) and open to interpretation, secondly, the Tories haven't necessarily shone in power, so why reward them with an electoral mandate? Where votes make an electoral difference - in Ontario and Quebec - i don't see the great silent majority, especially in Ontario, simply discarding the Liberals only to grant the Conservatives a majority. Doesn't wash

I'll wait and see till the election does indeed start

It will be another minority mustang, Lib or CPC, it's really too close to tell and the percentage/seat advantage will depend on who fucks up the least during the campaign.

Both Iggy and Harper have elements within their parties that can easily screw things up for them in a campaign.

I wouldn't like to call the next one.

I think you're right...minority, likely Tory or Grit, unless something happens (ask John Tory about it) during the campaign.

[DerbyX]

Praxius Praxius:

Well I base my previous opinion on this:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/stor ... esday.html

".... Bloc Québécois candidates were elected in 50 ridings, while NDP candidates took 37 seats, a gain of seven seats over the last election. Two Independents also held on to their seats....

While in the election before that they gained seats.

Thats true but the cons gained a lot of seats also.

Popular vote from past elections with seat count.
2008 18.18% 37 seats (308)
2006 17.48% 29 seats (308)
2004 15.68% 19 seats (308)
2000 8.51% 13 seats (301)
1997 11.05% 21 seats (301)
1993 6.88% 9 seats (295)
1988 20.30% 43 seats (295)

They have gained a bit in popularity but the Green party saps votes from them meaning less actual seats.

Still, they are at least 10% off of Dions result (30.23%) and I can't see how they can do much better.


There is a fair bit of variability but that usually just reflects whatever bit of good or bad press they got recently. Still trend wise they seem to top out just under 20%. The Libs have enough core support that there won't be a mass defection to the NDP unless Iggy runs on a platform of turning unwanted cats and dogs into a cheap food source for the poor.

I'd still like to see the Lib-NDP-Greens propose a coalition prior to an election and let the voters decide if they want to have a minority coalition government but I can't see Iggy going for it. He'd rather take his chances and win a minority then play the opposition parties off each other for support and hopefully set the groundwork for a majority.

Me, I'd rather see a stable government with both the Greens and NDP having a say in order to get a more leftist government then we would under Iggy. The Cons can get stuffed as far as I'm concerned.

[leewgrant]

One can argue the numbers of course but a result not even as close at this (let's say 120 CPC vs 100 LPC) will result in complete instability given the rancour existing politically right now. Only the public can do anything about this by telling their MPs to get their sh*t together and acting cooperatively - like on GHGs, criminal code amendments, EI, etc

Of course also there is the Doomsday Scenario - Lib/Dip coalition supported by the Bloc.

[ASLplease]

minority governments work hard for Canada. I don't see Iggy meeting the same excellent standard that the CPC have met.

[DerbyX]

leewgrant leewgrant:

One can argue the numbers of course but a result not even as close at this (let's say 120 CPC vs 100 LPC) will result in complete instability given the rancour existing politically right now. Only the public can do anything about this by telling their MPs to get their sh*t together and acting cooperatively - like on GHGs, criminal code amendments, EI, etc

Of course also there is the Doomsday Scenario - Lib/Dip coalition supported by the Bloc.

Doomsday?

Aside from a Lib-NDP-Bloc coalition we are still left with your same scenario of complete instability because Harper will not work with the Libs and Layton has pretty much said he will vote against the CPC on any confidence motion regardless. He was the one who told Harper to go to hell when he tried for a coalition.

That means the only real stable option left is for a Lib-CPC one but again we are left with the reality that Harper hates the Libs and is loath to work with them.

Take a look at the majority of the vocal con supporters on this site. Most of them post nothing but hate for the Libs and even less respect then that for Layton and May and their respective parties. For them and Harper it seems the only acceptable outcome is a CPC majority something the voters simply will not give them. Why should Harper do something his core supporters aren't willing to support?

[Praxius]

DerbyX DerbyX:

Thats true but the cons gained a lot of seats also.

Certainly not as much as they and everybody else was predicting.

$1:

Popular vote from past elections with seat count.
2008 18.18% 37 seats (308)
2006 17.48% 29 seats (308)
2004 15.68% 19 seats (308)
2000 8.51% 13 seats (301)
1997 11.05% 21 seats (301)
1993 6.88% 9 seats (295)
1988 20.30% 43 seats (295)

They have gained a bit in popularity but the Green party saps votes from them meaning less actual seats.

Now there's a political tactic I never understood.

Because they Green Party gained a bit in popularity, they sapped votes from the Conservatives?

What makes you think those who voted Green would have automatically voted Conservative?

You can't, just like nobody could predict those people voting for any other party if Green didn't exist. They could have voted NDP, Liberal, Bloc... or not vote at all.

You can't just quickly sum it up by saying the Conservatives would have gotten those votes and thus, tally the green votes in some manner that favors the Conservatives.

$1:

There is a fair bit of variability but that usually just reflects whatever bit of good or bad press they got recently. Still trend wise they seem to top out just under 20%. The Libs have enough core support that there won't be a mass defection to the NDP unless Iggy runs on a platform of turning unwanted cats and dogs into a cheap food source for the poor.

That's not what the NDP are waiting for however.

$1:

I'd still like to see the Lib-NDP-Greens propose a coalition prior to an election and let the voters decide if they want to have a minority coalition government but I can't see Iggy going for it. He'd rather take his chances and win a minority then play the opposition parties off each other for support and hopefully set the groundwork for a majority.

Then he isn't set in reality if that's the case. A Coalition would probably work for the most part, of course a lot of Division between the nation and provinces will certainly occur at the hands of the Conservatives, with their typical cheap attack ads and flat out lies.

The Conservatives and Harper have proven that they'd rather put each province and individual against one another simply to gain and/or hold onto a few seats.

Their priorities are not for the nation and certainly not for the public.... they're out for themselves and nothing more.

$1:

Me, I'd rather see a stable government with both the Greens and NDP having a say in order to get a more leftist government then we would under Iggy. The Cons can get stuffed as far as I'm concerned.

Agreed.