N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:
DrCaleb DrCaleb:
Unless of course, it is fact.
Concerning facts; it is a fact there are prevailing wind patterns and they can be labelled. After that we get theoretical.
A scientific 'theory' is something that fits the available data. When climatologists study wind patterns for decades and their data points to certain behaviours, that becomes a scientific theory, and 'fact'. More data can come along to update the theory, but until it does the theory stands.
N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:
If you want to say it is a fact melting ice in the Arctic is causing the polar vortex to weaken this year and this is causing the record cooling in the mid-west we have to have a closer look at the melting ice.
You mention a sixth highest record melt for 2013, and give a link. That link was the wrong one. There was no mention of record melt for 2013, so I had to search the site. Is this what your talking about?
$1:
On September 13, Arctic sea ice reached its likely minimum extent for 2013. The minimum ice extent was the sixth lowest* in the satellite record
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/ ... -for-2013/Yes, that is the figure I recall. And I didn't say that "melting ice in the Arctic is causing the polar vortex to weaken this year". People much more in the know than me said it.
N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:
OK when they're talking minimum ice extent they're talking about the point in mid-September when as much ice has melted as is going to melt.
Here's a couple of points on that you missed.
I didn't miss, but I'll play along anyhow. . .
N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:
* We were discussing Antarctic temperatures on another thread. Somebody hastened to point out the Antarctic temp record is only 30 years long. It's the satellite record. The same is true with ice extent. The record is only about 30 years long. It's the satellite record.
But you repeat yourself . . The satellite record for HadCRUT4 is 30 years long, but what about the monitoring stations and ice core records? What about GISTEMP, UAH and NCEP/NCAR? HadCRUT4 doesn't cover the poles because of it's orbit, but the others do.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... a-ice.htmlhttp://www.climatedata.info/Proxy/Proxy/icecores.htmlN_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:
* When discussing records you forgot to mention the year before - 2012 - was the record for minimum ice extent. The record for highest increase was last year, 2013, when it went from 1st to 6th.
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/sat ... ce_ext.pngAnd why is that relevant? Are you going to try to prove that '1' is a pattern again?
N_Fiddledog N_Fiddledog:
OK so if we're going to say it is a fact the effect of the Polar Vortex is governed by ice melt, and large melt means greater cooling as a result of the weakening vortex why are we noticing this effect this year when there was a record increase in ice, and not last year when there was a record 30 year melt?
The answer is, it's not a fact. The polar vortex effect theory is only that - another theory. And it needs to be better thought out.
Again, you confuse 'Scientific Theory' with the English word 'theory'. They are not the same. And people with much more information on the subject are the ones who tell us about the polar vortex.
As for effect, in 2012 Europe had a massive cold snap that killed many people. So, we did feel the effect of the sea ice minimum.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/f ... ern-europeIf you can come up with a better theory, I'm sure there are Universities looking for good Climatologists.