The escalation and repercussions are closing in on Putin.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/07 ... &ir=CanadaResponding to the renewed crisis in Ukraine, on Tuesday the European Union (EU) moved towards imposing economic sanctions on associates of Vladimir Putin, with foreign ministers agreeing to "concrete proposals" to create a list of the president’s "cronies" who would be subject to punitive measures.
Following on from sanctions earlier imposed by Washington, this week’s push by the EU to inflict more punishing strictures against Russia’s elites could not only have far-reaching consequences for the future conflict between Moscow and Kiev, but pose an existential threat to the Putin regime.
"The Russian political system rewards strong leaders who can keep order and stability, while providing the opportunity for people to gain economically," Kimberly Marten, a professor of political science at Barnard College and Columbia University, told HuffPost. "The alternative in the minds of the population and the inner circle of elites is the terrible instability and violence of the 1990s."
So, on the surface, all Putin needs to do is show the West a strong face while maintaining the stability and open markets that have allowed the elite class to prosper. However, herein sits the problem: within Russia’s "inner circle of elites", various different interests are coming into conflict.
According to Samuel Greene, the Director of the Russia Institute at King’s College London, the security establishment (members of the military and the secret services), and the ideological establishment (nationalists), both of which espouse a very isolationist agenda, are "pushing up against the interests of the business elites" who profit from the ability to move money and goods across borders.
"Putin’s goal is not to make any of the groups happy but to maintain a balance and a steady state," says Greene. "What becomes a threat to him is if the system is unbalanced and everyone comes to the conclusion that they might be better off without him or with some other leadership."