[BartSimpson]

Scape Scape:

Global War? No. Bad for business.

China expanding to a blue water navy? Only a matter of time.

China will never do more than control their part of the pond. India won't tolerate China running ops in the IO and no one will tolerate China running ops in the Atlantic.

Maybe in 40-50 years, who knows? But for the forseeable future and with Chinese governance the way it is they're generations away from being able to run major naval ops.

[andyt]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

Scape Scape:

Global War? No. Bad for business.

China expanding to a blue water navy? Only a matter of time.

China will never do more than control their part of the pond. India won't tolerate China running ops in the IO and no one will tolerate China running ops in the Atlantic.

Maybe in 40-50 years, who knows? But for the forseeable future and with Chinese governance the way it is they're generations away from being able to run major naval ops.

You have a very brief concept of never - you should be a politician.

[sandorski]

The trend is, a rising China, a declining US. Wishful thinking won't change it.

[BartSimpson]

sandorski sandorski:

The trend is, a rising China, a declining US. Wishful thinking won't change it.

No, but reality likely will. That reality being that China is not far removed from being an assortment of provinces run by warlords and there's still a lot of momentum in that direction.

Oddly, the opening up of China to the world is its Achilles Heel. As the peasants become more conversant with the possibilities that abound in the world the less likely they'll continue playing games with their leaders.

People worry about China's massive military while not taking note of the fact that the military in China exists primarily to keep their people under control.

Now ask why?

Ask the question and you'll see why I am not so concerned about them. Granted, like any bully state, they need to be properly countered and anyone not ready to deal with them from a position of strength will be in trouble.

But that's an aside.

China has cultural problems that interfere in its ability to prosper as a power and those problems will not change anytime soon. I think China may end up being a pain in the tookus, but they've got a long list of neighboring countries ready to spank them down.

And as to China ruling the Pacific, they have to contend with Japan and Australia even if the USA were to retreat from the Western Pacific.

[Canadian_Mind]

I don't think contending with Australia would be too difficult for the Chinese, the Aussies have a smaller navy than we do, if I'm not mistaken.

[BartSimpson]

Canadian_Mind Canadian_Mind:

I don't think contending with Australia would be too difficult for the Chinese, the Aussies have a smaller navy than we do, if I'm not mistaken.

The Aussies have a different ORBAT than Canada does.

[sandorski]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

sandorski sandorski:

The trend is, a rising China, a declining US. Wishful thinking won't change it.

No, but reality likely will. That reality being that China is not far removed from being an assortment of provinces run by warlords and there's still a lot of momentum in that direction.

Oddly, the opening up of China to the world is its Achilles Heel. As the peasants become more conversant with the possibilities that abound in the world the less likely they'll continue playing games with their leaders.

People worry about China's massive military while not taking note of the fact that the military in China exists primarily to keep their people under control.

Now ask why?

Ask the question and you'll see why I am not so concerned about them. Granted, like any bully state, they need to be properly countered and anyone not ready to deal with them from a position of strength will be in trouble.

But that's an aside.

China has cultural problems that interfere in its ability to prosper as a power and those problems will not change anytime soon. I think China may end up being a pain in the tookus, but they've got a long list of neighboring countries ready to spank them down.

And as to China ruling the Pacific, they have to contend with Japan and Australia even if the USA were to retreat from the Western Pacific.

Like I said, wishful thinking won't change anything. Economically they'll dominate, Japan and Australia together are already outmatched.

[Khar]

The power of the Chinese economy is a bit overstated, as I've posted here before, and I feel the concept of economic domination is all too often percieved as if we have a bunch of closed economies wailing away at each other. Rather, as China comes to play a driving role as a more and more open economy, the offset is that they too end up having some influence on them as well from the outside world. Even though the US is an economic and trade behemoth, the mass majority of it's trade goes on inside it's own borders, for example. China still ranks very low on GDP per person and a dozen other rankings out there, and it's human development index continues to be quite low. Defining an economy is a system of consumption and distribution through the efficient use of resources, not just trade power. From that, I think that personally the ideal of economic "domination" is a bit too overstated by modern media, probably because a lot of media does end up focusing on the States and economic ties play an important role in modern day relations. I think, however, it's the same for China as well.

In part, it's because they have been forced to liberalize control over the yuan, allowing is to slowly float. For those who may remember, the same thing was forced upon Japan and did slow and cripple their economy for a while. As China's yuan is allowed to float rather than be kept at a low, uncompetitive level, their economic growth will begin to slow. However, progress in seeing this change come has been slow, with the yuan continuing to be undervalued by at least 30%.

We have also seen a definitive increase in the living standards of those living in China. China is, as a result, beginning to be undercut in some manufacturing industires for labour, as labour is rapidly becoming cheaper elsewhere. Likewise, exports from China are going to begin to become more expensive as labour climates and the yuan continues to be allowed to adjust incrementally to interntional levels.

China has also seen a lot of growth in imports, and is dependant on trade to finance it's massive economic machine. While China is growing into a dominating power, we are also seeing a rise in other powers to compete with it in various ways. In addition, as it grows, so too does it's dependence grow on other nations. The debtor-creditor relationships China has alone make it desirable not to screw around too much (definitions of that no doubt vary) with other nations.

Finally, China is facing consistent pressures at home. One of the major ones is environmental. While I am not going to go into the topic of climate change or global warming, in whichever way it is being defined, there are problems in China when it comes to such things as desertification of arable land and growing pollution problems in major industrial centers. Smog, heat islands, grime, water toxification, and other issues directly impact the health and wellbeing of the people living there and, by extension, their output as a nation.

China is most definitely an Economic giant, and will continue to "dominate" economically. However, China is also facing growing longterm problems which are not in it's favour. The growth in the need for energy, for example, is only going to get worse as time goes on. The growing need for food as arable land continues to decrease in size. The continued shift of the nation's agrarian communities. Social issues, including corruption and racial controversy. Antagonistic international attitudes, including several problems with nearby nations like Japan, India and South Korea. The new found appetite of the middle class. Growing social problems, especially with oversight and the inability of state capitalism to as adequately respond to shocks in some, or many, cases. These problems cannot be ignored.

Canadians sometimes undervalue the importance of having a strong primary industry economy. We play a larger role in the world economy than what a lot of people tend to think. It's sort of the opposite problem with China.