[Thanos]

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

The best part about a conspiracy is the lack of need for evidence.

The only fact we have is Teck decided to pull the plug themselves. Whether the rug was going to be pulled on them or not, their letter detailing the reasons seem pretty sound. And if Trudeau was pulling the plug, they could have said it in the letter.

And Teck is far from the first company to pull out of the oilsands. It's just the latest.

Either that or Teck has too many irons in other fires around the country to risk the government coming after them over those projects if they'd laid the blame on Trudeau where it belongs. After too many incidents with him over the last several years it would be a mistake to think he wouldn't react in as petty a manner as Donald Trump does when he's been insulted.

And Warren Kinsella said that the anti-Alberta enviro-whacko part of the Liberal caucus was ready to revolt if cabinet gave Teck the approval. No way that Trudeau was going to risk that ever happening. The country basically just lost $70 billion in royalties and other tax revenue that would have been created over the next 40 years if Teck had built the project. Small sacrifice to pay though apparently as long as the Natural Governing Party maintains it's perpetual suzerainty over the Canadian political system.

[FieryVulpine]

"Climate" and "carbon neutral" as largely just meaningless PR buzzwords as China, India, and the developing world will make up the difference in carbon dioxide emissions anyway. The timing of the application is highly suspect as it comes after two weeks of rail blockades over the Coast GasLink pipeline, which is (in all likelihood) a warmup for what will happen with TMX. Trudeau doesn't really have to do anything. Like most Canadians he is too weak-willed, feeble-minded, and complacent do actually do much other than provide platitudes and sweet-nothings.

It's quite hilarious really. Canadians would rather live in their own delusions than take decisive action, which will make the next recession quite interesting when it hits.

[DrCaleb]

Thanos Thanos:

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

The best part about a conspiracy is the lack of need for evidence.

The only fact we have is Teck decided to pull the plug themselves. Whether the rug was going to be pulled on them or not, their letter detailing the reasons seem pretty sound. And if Trudeau was pulling the plug, they could have said it in the letter.

And Teck is far from the first company to pull out of the oilsands. It's just the latest.

Either that or Teck has too many irons in other fires around the country to risk the government coming after them over those projects if they'd laid the blame on Trudeau where it belongs. After too many incidents with him over the last several years it would be a mistake to think he wouldn't react in as petty a manner as Donald Trump does when he's been insulted.

And Warren Kinsella said that the anti-Alberta enviro-whacko part of the Liberal caucus was ready to revolt if cabinet gave Teck the approval. No way that Trudeau was going to risk that ever happening. The country basically just lost $70 billion in royalties and other tax revenue that would have been created over the next 40 years if Teck had built the project. Small sacrifice to pay though apparently as long as the Natural Governing Party maintains it's perpetual suzerainty over the Canadian political system.

$1:

Project's economic viability questioned

In July 2019, a joint federal-provincial review panel recommended the mine be approved, saying the economic benefits outweighed what it described as significant adverse environmental impacts.

However, a January report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis made the case that Teck's application showed a "reckless disregard for the facts regarding oil prices in Canada."

The joint-review panel relied on a long-term oil price projection of more than $95 US per barrel provided by Teck, the IEEFA wrote, about $40 US higher than current prices and around $20 US higher than other forecasts.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/ ... -1.5473370

[Thanos]

I don't doubt it was a hail mary by Teck. The problem is that when the referee is so biased and in obvious favour of the other team that they might as well be wearing an opponent's uniform the desperation plays are really all that's left.

[DrCaleb]

Thanos Thanos:

I don't doubt it was a hail mary by Teck. The problem is that when the referee is so biased and in obvious favour of the other team that they might as well be wearing an opponent's uniform the desperation plays are really all that's left.

The referee is biased because that's the way the voters want it to be. Like in the article I quoted, Trudeau was screwed no matter what happened. He can either disappoint the people who want something done about climate change, or he can disappoint we West Buffalonians who were looking for just one more oil boom, please god, just one more! We promise this time we won't piss it away!

Now we will have to grow up and get real jobs. Oil isn't going to lift our wagons any more.

And the funniest part, Kenny was ragging that lack of a carbon policy is partly to blame for this cancelled project - and he was the one that threw away Albertas' carbon pricing policy!

[Thanos]

Teck also said that the lack of a finished pipeline played into their decision. And the goal-posts keep being moved on the federal carbon policy too. Alberta still has a carbon tax of a sort, just not the kind the hard-left wants. So it's a mistake to think that it's only Alberta's policy that shaped Teck's decision, especially in an atmosphere where federal policy by far is causing much more damage to the industry than any provincial tinkering could do. Kenney gave them all more tax credits anyway, on top of the former Notley government backing away from any increased in royalties, and that should have more than made up for any provincial carbon tax taking revenues away from them.

Looks like Trudeau's dream of getting rid of the sector altogether will happen much sooner than the 2030 target date he and Butts were aiming for. Another proud Canadian moment!

[herbie]

"The referee" was just about to announce a decision. Please don't project your negativity on it, as half this board will think it's already fact.

[Thanos]

Just go do your victory lap and get it over with already.

[herbie]

I'm not taking any sides here.
But when there's gonna be massive public outcry AND no demand for the product it's moot regardless of what they'd have decided.

[PluggyRug]

Rex Murphy clobbers Trudeau.

$1:

If one were to assemble a group of the most insidiously devious minds that this world has spawned (the Prof. Moriartys and Lex Luthors of the world) and ask them to devise the surest way to snap the bonds of Canadian Confederation, disenchant and alienate an entire productive region of the country, paralyze the nation’s transportation system and, while they were at it, deepen the rift with Canada’s Indigenous citizens, they’d report back in a heartbeat: “Sorry, we can’t come up with anything that beats what you’ve already got — the present Trudeau government.”

More here...https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-mu ... bY-8GDu4VI

[Mowich]

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

PluggyRug PluggyRug:

$1:

Canada is presently in the throes of social and political disintegration. A left-leaning electorate has once again empowered a socialist government promoting all the lunatic ideological shibboleths of the day: global warming or “climate change,” radical feminism, indigenous sovereignty, expansionary government, environmental strangulation of energy production, and the presumed efficiency of totalitarian legislation. Industry and manufacturing are abandoning the country in droves and heading south.

More here..

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/c ... y-walking/

That's hilarious! A company decides a project isn't financially viable, and it's really the "Radical Feminists" who are to blame.

"Teck’s CEO and president Don Lindsay said the company was withdrawing from the proposed $20.6-billion Frontier mine because of the broader conversation around climate change in Canada."
FTFY.........so the truth gets out.

[DrCaleb]

Mowich Mowich:

DrCaleb DrCaleb:

PluggyRug PluggyRug:

More here..

https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/c ... y-walking/

That's hilarious! A company decides a project isn't financially viable, and it's really the "Radical Feminists" who are to blame.

"Teck’s CEO and president Don Lindsay said the company was withdrawing from the proposed $20.6-billion Frontier mine because of the broader conversation around climate change in Canada."
FTFY.........so the truth gets out.

It already was. I posted a link to the entire letter earlier.

[JaredMilne]

Thanos Thanos:

Teck also said that the lack of a finished pipeline played into their decision. And the goal-posts keep being moved on the federal carbon policy too. Alberta still has a carbon tax of a sort, just not the kind the hard-left wants. So it's a mistake to think that it's only Alberta's policy that shaped Teck's decision, especially in an atmosphere where federal policy by far is causing much more damage to the industry than any provincial tinkering could do. Kenney gave them all more tax credits anyway, on top of the former Notley government backing away from any increased in royalties, and that should have more than made up for any provincial carbon tax taking revenues away from them.

Looks like Trudeau's dream of getting rid of the sector altogether will happen much sooner than the 2030 target date he and Butts were aiming for. Another proud Canadian moment!

I assumed that Trudeau actually would approve the project, but that it actually had a low chance of getting built.

Take a look at what the Financial Post wrote:

$1:

It marked a change in tone for the CEO, who has previously emphasized that the viability of the proposed $20 billion project Frontier in Alberta, capable of producing 260,000 barrels of oil per day, depended on three P’s: pipeline capacity to carry product to market, oil prices and finding a partner.

Analysts had always questioned whether the economics of Frontier made sense, noting that Teck assumed the oil price would exceed $95 per barrel when it initially contemplated the project, but since then current WTI crude price have fallen dramatically, to $51.46 as of Monday.

Last week, Teck announced that “lower market expectations for future oil prices” forced it to write down the value of its existing oilsands assets by $910 million.

Orest Wowkodaw, an analyst at Scotia Capital Inc, wrote Monday that he had ascribed “a very low probability” to the chance of the Frontier mine being built, and thus gave it “zero value” in his financial modelling.

“At some point in time, this (project) may make sense,” said Shane Nagle, a research analyst at National Bank Financial. “If the oil price was higher and other companies were chomping at the bit for new projects, maybe this makes sense.”

But the economic headwinds made the project unlikely to be constructed even if a permit were granted, Nagle said.

So these analysts, who are not exactly known for their socialist street cred, all had serious doubts about Teck's viability. It doesn't help that OPEC, which Kenney and Trudeau have zero control over, has flooded the market with so much product that prices are in the tank right now.

Unfortunately, the Teck project probably wouldn't have been the economic elixir we were hoping it would be.

And why don't we hear from the big man himself, the Teck President and CEO, on other reasons why they decided to withdraw the Frontier application?

$1:

However, global capital markets are changing rapidly and investors and customers are increasingly looking for jurisdictions to have a framework in place that reconciles resource development and climate change, in order to produce the cleanest possible products. This does not yet exist here today and, unfortunately, the growing debate around this issue has placed Frontier and our company squarely at the nexus of much broader issues that need to be resolved. In that context, it is now evident that there is no constructive path forward for the project. Questions about the societal implications of energy development, climate change and Indigenous rights are critically important ones for Canada, its provinces and Indigenous governments to work through.

So investors and customers alike want oil jurisdictions to reconcile resource development and climate change...even as so many conservatives seem to flip out at the idea of doing anything about climate change, ranging from legal challenges against carbon pricing to Preston Manning saying that many conservatives are soured on it. The perception is that they don't give a damn about the possible environmental fallout around climate change, even though our customers and investors are demanding more and more that something be done about it.

Justin Trudeau, for all his warts, is at least trying to seem like he's addressing these issues.

Not to mention that our sticking our heads in the sand on Native rights, trying to repress them after the fact rather than trying to figure out how they could be accommodated is one of the main reasons these blockades and protests are happening...and simply dispersing them with the cops or, God forbid, the military is a PR disaster waiting to happen.

[Thanos]

For what it's worth, given that it's only 50/50 that he's telling the truth at any given time, Jason Kenney said that the information he has was that Teck made the final decision because the federal cabinet was going to kick the deadline for approval down the road by another six months to a full year. If that's true then there was no way Teck was, or could, wait any longer because obviously they were wasting their time trying to get through to the feds. Halting a project by constantly changing the criteria for acceptance or endlessly delaying approval is no different than rejecting it outright. It's a totally chickenshit way to do it but that's to be expected from a gutless government run by a pathetic pajama-boy like Li'l Potato.

So the investors aren't investing because (a) no carbon framework in place, and (b) the Liberal regulatory & approval procedure is deliberately stymieing new opportunities. Six of one, half dozen of the other. Either way both Alberta and the industry are fucked, and apparently permanently while Trudeau's mob of virtue-signallers control this country. If the bulk of the Canadian oil & gas industry was geographically located in Quebec and Ontario this wouldn't be happening at all. And anyone who says otherwise doesn't care, or thinks it's funny, or has absolutely no idea at all how this country is run, who runs it, and who it's run for.

[JaredMilne]

Thanos Thanos:

For what it's worth, given that it's only 50/50 that he's telling the truth at any given time, Jason Kenney said that the information he has was that Teck made the final decision because the federal cabinet was going to kick the deadline for approval down the road by another six months to a full year. If that's true then there was no way Teck was, or could, wait any longer because obviously they were wasting their time trying to get through to the feds. Halting a project by constantly changing the criteria for acceptance or endlessly delaying approval is no different than rejecting it outright. It's a totally chickenshit way to do it but that's to be expected from a gutless government run by a pathetic pajama-boy like Li'l Potato.

So the investors aren't investing because (a) no carbon framework in place, and (b) the Liberal regulatory & approval procedure is deliberately stymieing new opportunities. Six of one, half dozen of the other. Either way both Alberta and the industry are fucked, and apparently permanently while Trudeau's mob of virtue-signallers control this country. If the bulk of the Canadian oil & gas industry was geographically located in Quebec and Ontario this wouldn't be happening at all. And anyone who says otherwise doesn't care, or thinks it's funny, or has absolutely no idea at all how this country is run, who runs it, and who it's run for.

In that case, aren't we as Albertans partly responsible for our own misfortunes by fighting the carbon frameworks (despite conservatives like Preston Manning and Jack Mintz calling for one, and Manning being demonized by Ezra Levant for it) and for electing politicians that pissed away so much of the Heritage Fund?

Don't get me wrong, the federal changes to the regulatory approval process are fucking us over, not to mention the anti-oil activists who want to actively shut down the industry, and then there's the jackasses in OPEC who've been flooding the market with supply to keep prices down...

...but when we keep pissing away our oil booms, eventually it catches up to us.