[raydan]

This is what you West-Coasters need...


...you're welcome.

[BRAH]

_________________

One of the few buildings in Vancouver that is supposed to be Earthquake resistant.

[bootlegga]

The CF does planning/exercises like this all the time - anyone remember Operation Abacus? And the CF has lots of experience in disaster relief: ice storms in Quebec, floods in Manitoba, wildfires in Alberta/BC and so on. That's without even mentioning DART and its international deployments.

Yes, there might not be any Reg Force units in the lower mainland, but that just means when the big one comes, they aren't wiped out too. CFB Edmonton has thousands of troops (including 408 Helicopter Squadron), some of whom who could deploy in relatively short order.

I agree that YVR may very well sink into the sea after the event, but there are half a dozen airports in the lower mainland, from the International Airport in Abbotsford to smaller regional airports in Delta, Chiliwack, Langley and Surrey. I'm sure some of those would survive and could handle Hercs and/or helos. At the very worst, Kamloops and Kelowna both have a major airport and are only four hours up the highway.

And while I agree that some transportation nodes may be damaged, I doubt that every corridor into BC would be completely wiped. Don't forget that there are several major rail lines in addition to a well-developed highway network.

Finally, unless it somehow affected the entire country, you could expect a massive response from the rest of Canada, just like happens in every other major disaster. International aid would also likely pour in, albeit slowly at first.

[Matlow]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

xerxes xerxes:

That's very true Bartman. It's almost like the 'boy who cried wolf' effect where we've all heard the warning so often most people tune it out know. And to an extent, I think people who still realise the potential for a catastrophic quake deep down realise that no matter how prepared we are for the big one, it'll still fuck things up big time.

Most of Vancouver will be in a bad way when it happens especially since the airport and the port will likely be wrecked. Where I live might end up being the focal point of a lot of airlift ops. We have one of the longest runways around, the next ones being off the top of my head in Prince George and then Calgary.

One upside for Vancouver is the city upgraded the port to handle the new super container ships and that means the channel can handle US aircraft carriers. Helicopters can operate off of and refuel from those ships and in a pinch their reactors can be tapped to run a portion of the city's electric grid.

Great that the YVR harbour can handle "super" (new-Panamax or Post-Panamax?) container ships. Now we just have to figure out how to move the remnants of the Lion's Gate Bridge to get them into the harbour. That of course assumes that anything is left to unload at. Yes I forgot to mention YVR will be an undersea garden but most of Delta, Richmond and South Surrey will be suffering the effects of liquefaction anyway.

Have a look at how the rail lines were built. Google pictures and you will see that some are built into rock blasted out of the sides of Fraser Canyon. Of the three rail lines from Canada that make it to Vancouver the two class 1 railways, basically parallel each other from Kamloops to YVR through the canyon and down the Fraser Valley. Me thinks they will have issues. The third smaller capacity rail line comes down to the Coast via roughly the same route as Duffy Lake Road and the Sea to Sky Highway by Whistler. You know another rail line built alongside steep slopes which overhang the tracks for a lot of the route.

The BNSF rail lines heading up from Seattle literally run right along the beach in White Rock. Right past Delta's airport which is at a place called Mud Bay...

The other BNSF spur joins the two Canadian ones at about Mission. It will probably be the one used for shifting equipment to the lower mainland if the US folks can fit us in...

Here is a map of all the rail lines in BC, one does not have to be a Transport Engineer to figure this out. http://www.proximityissues.ca/asset/image/reference/maps/pdf/BC_rail_map.pdf

I note the comment about the electric grid and feeding back into it. As Russell Peters would say "Okaaaaaaay" what grid is that? It does not take much to have a power pole snap especially when they have transformers hanging off them. I have watched a brand new substation being built near my farm for the past 18 months or so. Pretty sure the substation will survive. However the lines leave the substation and run underground in a concrete filled series of conduits with vaults about every hundred meters which will most likely remain operational. Then about 3 km later they have to cross the TCH so BC Hydro brought the distribution lines up from underground and ran them through about 12 poles on either side of the highway to connect to the other circuits that feed areas further afield. If even one of those poles has an issue that entire substation is rendered useless. These are much taller than normal poles due to the voltages involved.


the most accurate comment so far on this thread is above:

$1:

I think people who still realise the potential for a catastrophic quake deep down realise that no matter how prepared we are for the big one, it'll still fuck things up big time

Indeed it will.

Not crying wolf but I am a realist and as such can't ignore the fact I live in a highly active seismic zone.

Have a good earthquake kit and plan to gather your family if things go off the rails. Do some simple things to seismically prepare your home and most important know your neighbours because you will need each other when the effluent hits the ventilation device. That's about all one can do unless y'all wanna do the hardcore prepper thing.

On a brighter note and any snow at YVR this morning? It's snowing at my place on the other side of the moat near Nanaimo.

[Matlow]

BRAH BRAH:

_________________

One of the few buildings in Vancouver that are supposed to be Earthquake resistant.

Sheesh I remember when that building was the first thing one would see when coming out of Stanley Park from the North shore.

Now you cannot see it with all the other highrises around it.

[Matlow]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

martin14 martin14:

Matlow Matlow:

Sorry double clicked

Hey, not a bad assessment, you only missed that the airport is also built on fill
that will liquefy pretty quick, so they won't be able to airlift stuff in or out either.

Don't forget that the USA is right next door and if TSHTF we'll probably overwhelm you guys with assistance.

Hey Bart, the US west coast west of I5 will be a gong show. Don't think Mr. Trump (or whoever is in charge at the time) will send us too much help up here. He will have his hands full at home.

[Matlow]

Nuggie77 Nuggie77:

Well thank goodness you have all the answers. ...oh wait no you don't. Might want to leave it to the folks that know the plan.

Ok Nuggie77 sit back and relax I never intimated I know all the answers at all but I sure can see where some issues may arise. Interesting that you rather than contributing to the thread it has to get personal.

You win, I guess I will do as you suggest, and leave it to the folks who know the plan. I am pretty sure they will be right there to help when the time comes and I, plus the approximately 2 million other people who live in the Lower Mainland and the coastal islands, need them.

[BRAH]

Matlow Matlow:

BRAH BRAH:

_________________

One of the few buildings in Vancouver that is supposed to be Earthquake resistant.

Sheesh I remember when that building was the first thing one would see when coming out of Stanley Park from the North shore.

Now you cannot see it with all the other highrises around it.

____________________

The way it was built is safer than most buildings today.

[BartSimpson]

Matlow Matlow:

Hey Bart, the US west coast west of I5 will be a gong show. Don't think Mr. Trump (or whoever is in charge at the time) will send us too much help up here. He will have his hands full at home.

The likely scenario for the next Cascadia quake is off of Astoria, Oregon. That puts major damage in that area with Aberdeen (Washington) being flushed away by a tsunami. Vancouver and Vic will feel it and may take moderate but not disastrous damage.

The likely worst case scenario has a ~9.0 temblor at the mouth of the Strait and then a wave of 30-40 meters coming through the passage and diminishing to under 5 meters by the time it reaches Tsawassen.

The rail lines on the coast will be done for. 99/I-5 will be done for. The Van airport will take severe damage. Older buildings in Vic, Van, and Seattle will fail.

There is also a potential for a quake along a possible major fault line that runs east of Vancouver Island and down into Puget sound. I've been to a couple meetings where this has been discussed because the geology in the area is similar to the California desert where the Salton Trough Fault was noted last year.

While there's no firm evidence for such a deep fault just yet it's anticipated that there will eventually be swarms of quakes to identify it.

If it goes you could have a ~7.5 right offshore of Van and that would be far worse than a 9.0 100km offshore of Pachena Beach.

[martin14]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

The rail lines on the coast will be done for. 99/I-5 will be done for. The Van airport will take severe damage. Older buildings in Vic, Van, and Seattle will fail.

Not to mention all the single family residential stock, none of it was built
with any kind of earthquake anything in place.

[Strutz]

Matlow Matlow:

On a brighter note and any snow at YVR this morning? It's snowing at my place on the other side of the moat near Nanaimo.

Nope, it's dry here this morning.

[Nuggie77]

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

xerxes xerxes:

That's very true Bartman. It's almost like the 'boy who cried wolf' effect where we've all heard the warning so often most people tune it out know. And to an extent, I think people who still realise the potential for a catastrophic quake deep down realise that no matter how prepared we are for the big one, it'll still fuck things up big time.

Most of Vancouver will be in a bad way when it happens especially since the airport and the port will likely be wrecked. Where I live might end up being the focal point of a lot of airlift ops. We have one of the longest runways around, the next ones being off the top of my head in Prince George and then Calgary.

One upside for Vancouver is the city upgraded the port to handle the new super container ships and that means the channel can handle US aircraft carriers. Helicopters can operate off of and refuel from those ships and in a pinch their reactors can be tapped to run a portion of the city's electric grid.

The carriers can't clear the Lions Gate bridge (if it's still standing)

[BartSimpson]

martin14 martin14:

BartSimpson BartSimpson:

The rail lines on the coast will be done for. 99/I-5 will be done for. The Van airport will take severe damage. Older buildings in Vic, Van, and Seattle will fail.

Not to mention all the single family residential stock, none of it was built
with any kind of earthquake anything in place.

At the least it's sensible for everyone regardless of where they live to secure their water heaters against seismic events.

A few bucks worth of carpenter's tape and a few nails and you might save your home.

The Mormons actually have the best info on how to do this frugally:

https://ldsintelligentliving.org/2010/0 ... your-home/

[BartSimpson]

Nuggie77 Nuggie77:

The carriers can't clear the Lions Gate bridge (if it's still standing)

According to UC Berkeley's analysis the rocking foundation of the Lion's Gate Bridge would perform admirably in a major seismic event. The old farts who built the thing knew what they were doing.

http://peer.berkeley.edu/publications/p ... giotou.pdf

[Strutz]

raydan raydan:

This is what you West-Coasters need...


...you're welcome.

And if it doesn't save you you're ready for burial.