[PostFactum]

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

Yea, but but but... I saw it coming, so didn't those in power? Then again, I saw 9/11 coming, 6 months before it happened. So did a lot of others, but George W. wouldn't listen. Ok, next prediction, watch out in Dnipropetrovsk. Your map doesn't show much, but I think Putin wants Yuzhmash.

Ukraine police did the right thing in Odessa. Can't take sides regarding protesters. However, when anyone captures a government building, the police have to act.

It's just map of risk lvl. I'll tell you my prediction, on 9-th of may there will be some serious party.

[Goober911]

PostFactum PostFactum:

Winnipegger Winnipegger:

Yea, but but but... I saw it coming, so didn't those in power? Then again, I saw 9/11 coming, 6 months before it happened. So did a lot of others, but George W. wouldn't listen. Ok, next prediction, watch out in Dnipropetrovsk. Your map doesn't show much, but I think Putin wants Yuzhmash.

Ukraine police did the right thing in Odessa. Can't take sides regarding protesters. However, when anyone captures a government building, the police have to act.

It's just map of risk lvl. I'll tell you my prediction, on 9-th of may there will be some serious party.

So this will be a reversal of the celebration of the Nazi capitulation to the USSR?

Memorable day in the Ukraine.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/ ... 99346.html

ЕU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said the union wants a uniform price for Russian gas for all its member states, adding Europe's common gas infrastructure should include Ukraine, Georgia and the western Balkans.

Oettinger was speaking after a meeting with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who promotes an idea of an EU energy union and joint purchase of Russian gas, ahead of talks with Russia and Ukraine on the security of Russian gas deliveries to Europe.

"We want a uniform gas price in the European common market," Oettinger said at the joint news conference with Tusk.

"The game of 'divide et impera' (divide and rule), or a game of this type proposed by Moscow cannot be and will not be accepted by EU member states," Oettinger said.

Currently, EU member states buy Russian gas on the basis of bilateral contracts with Moscow, and pay different prices. Common purchases would improve EU's negotiating power and cut the price.

"We have very big differences in terms of gas prices. The higher the share of Russian gas in purchases and the bigger monopoly Russia has in supplies, the higher the prices are," Oettinger said.

The EU has made progress in improving its energy security since gas crises in 2006 and 2009, when rows over unpaid bills between Kiev and Moscow led to the disruption of gas exports to western Europe. But so far, EU reliance on imported oil and gas, especially from Russia, has been rising, not falling.

Oettinger also said that Europe should have pan-European grids for natural gas and electricity, including more power links between countries and should increase the diversification of its energy imports.

"The infrastructure with regard to gas and energy transit should have a pan-European character and should also include Ukraine, Georgia and Western Balkans," Oettinger said. "We want to prove our solidarity with Ukraine."

Ukraine fully supports the idea of introducing a unified price for natural gas in the EU, its Energy Minister Yuri Prodan told reporters in Warsaw ahead of a meeting with his Russian counterpart and Oettinger.

[BRAH]

Goober911 Goober911:

Which in your opinion is going to happen?
The full blown civil war, Russia stepping in, or Ukraine regaining control?
The big issue only a few weeks away is the election.

The civil war and the West being pulled in because the West has as much to lose as Ukraine if not more.

[Goober911]

BRAH BRAH:

Goober911 Goober911:

Which in your opinion is going to happen?
The full blown civil war, Russia stepping in, or Ukraine regaining control?
The big issue only a few weeks away is the election.

The civil war and the West being pulled in because the West has as much to lose as Ukraine if not more.

NATO will not step in, the political will is not there.
As to the Ukraine, the next few weeks are critical.
How much resistance, numbers of deaths, they do not need another mass death as in the building where a significant number died.
That gives Vlad more ammo.

[BRAH]

Goober911 Goober911:

BRAH BRAH:

Goober911 Goober911:

Which in your opinion is going to happen?
The full blown civil war, Russia stepping in, or Ukraine regaining control?
The big issue only a few weeks away is the election.

The civil war and the West being pulled in because the West has as much to lose as Ukraine if not more.

NATO will not step in, the political will is not there.
As to the Ukraine, the next few weeks are critical.
How much resistance, numbers of deaths, they do not need another mass death as in the building where a significant number died.
That gives Vlad more ammo.

If NATO can't rally together to stop Putin he wins and has shown they're irrelevant.

[Goober911]

$1:

If NATO can't rally together to stop Putin he wins and has shown they're irrelevant.

Are you calling for NATO to go to War if Vlad invades Eastern Ukraine?

[BRAH]

Goober911 Goober911:

$1:

If NATO can't rally together to stop Putin he wins and has shown they're irrelevant.

Are you calling for NATO to go to War if Vlad invades Eastern Ukraine?

Not war but together as one voice but they can't even do that, so is NATO even relevant anymore?

[Winnipegger]

BRAH BRAH:

Not war but together as one voice but they can't even do that, so is NATO even relevant anymore?

The more members, the greater chance of that happening. But what exactly are you talking about?

[Jabberwalker]

Clearly, NATO is still relevant and it is being called upon to perform it's original, prime function again for the first time in a quarter century ... containing Russian expansion.

[Goober911]

BRAH BRAH:

Goober911 Goober911:

$1:

If NATO can't rally together to stop Putin he wins and has shown they're irrelevant.

Are you calling for NATO to go to War if Vlad invades Eastern Ukraine?

Not war but together as one voice but they can't even do that, so is NATO even relevant anymore?

Then NATO must make it clear, Ukraine borders are inviolate.
NATO guarantees up to and including all Military action will be used to guarantee these borders.
No NATO troops / assets will deploy to the Ukraine.
Any invasion of Ukraine will be declared an Act of War against NATO countries.
Ukraine is defined as essential to NATO security.
Ukraine will not be admitted to NATO.

Immediate deployment of UN assets - OSCE to oversee the return of Govt facilities to the present Ukraine Govt. Force if required will be used.
Ensure a fair election.

Begin forward deployment of assets to the front line states.
Begin the plans that were in effect during the Cold War, mobilizing and deploying military assets from the States & Canada.

And lastly - It ain't gonna happen.

[Jabberwalker]

Nope. It will though if the Russians pull the same sort of shenanigans using their large Russian minority populations in the Baltic countries.

[martin14]

Goober911 Goober911:

Then NATO must make it clear, Ukraine borders are inviolate.

That went out the door with Crimea.

$1:

NATO guarantees up to and including all Military action will be used to guarantee these borders.

They did this when Ukraine became independent in 1991?
Not NATO, but UK and US... Budapest memorandum.

In exchange for the nukes on Ukrainian soil.
What a mistake that was.

$1:

No NATO troops / assets will deploy to the Ukraine.
Any invasion of Ukraine will be declared an Act of War against NATO countries.
Ukraine is defined as essential to NATO security.
Ukraine will not be admitted to NATO.

Immediate deployment of UN assets - OSCE to oversee the return of Govt facilities to the present Ukraine Govt. Force if required will be used.
Ensure a fair election.

Begin forward deployment of assets to the front line states.
Begin the plans that were in effect during the Cold War, mobilizing and deploying military assets from the States & Canada.

And lastly - It ain't gonna happen.

No, it won't. It will be the usual clusterfuck.

[PostFactum]

martin14 martin14:

Goober911 Goober911:

Then NATO must make it clear, Ukraine borders are inviolate.

That went out the door with Crimea.

$1:

NATO guarantees up to and including all Military action will be used to guarantee these borders.

They did this when Ukraine became independent in 1991?
Not NATO, but UK and US... Budapest memorandum.

And Russia too.

[PostFactum]

So, situation for today:

$1:

At this moment in Odessa continues the assault the city police department . Pro-Russian separatists demanding the release of all those detained on suspicion of riots and killings in May 2. Half an hour ago seemed to have released ten detainees. This writes the " Ukrainian Truth". A hour ago aggressors began to destroy doors and windows department of the MIA. Angry men at the same time chanting : "Odessa - Russian city ," " Fascism will not will pass ," " killer ," " Freedom Heroes ". Read more: In Odessa, the assault gorupravleniya police were wounded journalist before this crowd did not give a take detainees to court , where he had to consider their detention. At 16:25 the police released the detainees. A crowd of furious applause, shouts and whistles greeted it , chanting "Well done !" and " Odessa ". Reporting the ten released . At the same time, UNIAN reported that due to the lattice of all detainees released - and it's a few dozen people. At the same time Kulikov field where going to the local antymaydanivtsi and pro- separatists gathered several thousand people. Entrance to the House of Trade Unions in Odessa opened. In building someone hung a large Russian flag. Recall that during massive clashes in Odessa May 2 killing 46 people. Ukraine has declared mourning for the dead.
More can be found here : http://tsn.ua/politika/pid-natiskom-sep ... 48076.html

$1:

Today, during the assault on separatists in Odessa police gorupravleniya journalist who was wearing an orange vest , received a bullet in the leg. An unidentified man started shouting , shooting from the building of the police. Someone shouted that it is - a provocation , UNIAN. Journalist killed fast. Note is about a thousand separatists stormed the building miskUVS . They are chanting "Freedom ," " fascists ," " forgive ," " Fascism will not pass ", "Freedom Heroes " and require that the media called them " patriots ." Read more: Detainees in Odessa militants were residents of Russia and Transnistria - MIA They blocked the trash and stone flower beds roadway and sidewalk a quarter of Bunin to Zhukovsky. Their actions present explain that do not want law enforcement officials took the detainees in Primorsky district court. Some of the protesters broke into a court building. You can hear the screams and curses. Recall that in Odessa separatists staged a fight during gorupravlenii police. The city again occur clashes.
More can be found here : http://tsn.ua/politika/v-odesi-pid-chas ... 48075.html

$1:

In Odessa, released 67 participants riots May 2 decision by the prosecution at the request of the protesters .
This was stated in oblupravlenii MIA.
" By decision of the Prosecutor's Office at the request of the Odessa Oblast protesters were released 67 people detained by the Interior Odessa Region for participating in riots on May 2 ," - said in a statement .
Also, the Interior Ministry said that before that near the gorupravleniya MIA Ul.Preobrazhenskaya lasted crowded rally in support of activists Kulikovo field.
' At 16.20 the protesters broke the gates and entered the inner court of the Odessa city government. Manual police holding talks with protesters to resolve the situation , "- said in a statement .
According to sources inside the building of the Interior Ministry ' people walk , take out some form of police , picking the offices '.
' They say that they would choose ' national policeman '. Perhaps Fuchedzhy . It has proved its commitment to the separatists ... " - note the witnesses.
However, it was reported that the morning of 4 May and one of the pro-Ukrainian activists fired from a shotgun .
"A friend burned a garage under the house and waited . Actively spreading in social networks home addresses pro-Ukrainian residents urging them to destroy . Everything is done openly, without fear ," - said witnesses.
During the assault, police May 4 supporters detained separatists demanded their release, police did not allow dopravyty detainees to trial. After the meeting , they began to destroy police department. Subsequently, the security forces concessions and began to release detainees.

1. I can't explain this.

2. Don't know wtf is going on.

3. Don't know what to do.

Shame to my government, they are selling country.

[andyt]

Not your government. As I said before, they were too slow to act, but the people in Kyiv seem to want to keep Ukraine together, but maybe aren't the most skilful at it. And face having to choose among unpleasant options either way.

Hard to read what you posted, but if I read it right, some officials released pro-Russian protesters. No doubt there are people in positions of authority who sympathize with the Russian side. As I've said before, the pro-russian side seems to be a lot more numerous than some people in the west want to believe. Some officials being bribed is of course also a possibility.

It looks grim. Don't see things returning to the way they were. I think Ukraine will split between East and West, looks like the south might go to Russia as well.

Russia is now officially in recession. The sanctions are starting to bite. But Putin has his career riding on winning this, maybe even his life. He won't give up easily. Quite a possibility that if the West is resolute and enforces strict sanctions, we could see civil unrest spread to Russia. (Putin is part is doing this because he got scared by the protests against him last election). And then look out. Ukraine writ large with nukes. Maybe it's one reason the West hasn't been harsher with him, the alternative to Putin is too awful to think about. Sorta like Syria.

I think for sure the West has basically written off the East - ie Putin can take it without too many consequences from the West. Don't know about the south. But what does that leave West Ukraine? What resources (of all kinds) does it have to build a viable state? One that if it moves too close to the West would get Putin acting up all over again. I think he wants it as a buffer between east and west.