[Newsbot]

Title: We said 2014 was the warmest year on record... but we're only 38% sure we were right
Category: Environmental
Posted By: N_Fiddledog
Date: 2015-01-18 00:28:35

[N_Fiddledog]

See this is what I hate about climate scare stories. The first news release gets big press. Nobody hears about the details that come out to contradict the hysterical hyperbole of the blast of selected information the following day, or week.

It's like the real story (or at least the fuller story) doesn't exist.

$1:

[snip]the Nasa press release failed to mention this, as well as the fact that the alleged ‘record’ amounted to an increase over 2010, the previous ‘warmest year’, of just two-hundredths of a degree – or 0.02C. The margin of error is said by scientists to be approximately 0.1C – several times as much.

As a result, GISS’s director Gavin Schmidt has now admitted Nasa thinks the likelihood that 2014 was the warmest year since 1880 is just 38 per cent. However, when asked by this newspaper whether he regretted that the news release did not mention this, he did not respond. Another analysis, from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project, drawn from ten times as many measuring stations as GISS, concluded that if 2014 was a record year, it was by an even tinier amount.

Its report said: ‘Numerically, our best estimate for the global temperature of 2014 puts it slightly above (by 0.01C) that of the next warmest year (2010) but by much less than the margin of uncertainty.

‘Therefore it is impossible to conclude from our analysis which of 2014, 2010, or 2005 was actually the warmest year… the Earth’s average temperature for the past decade has changed very little.’

[martin14]

Just shilling for more budget money.

The whole GW industry is just shilling for more money.

Your money.

[N_Fiddledog]

And here's another thing. The scare story from GISS was front page, wide-spread and loud, but who heard the Satellite temp guys coming out with readings of 3rd and 7th warmest year the preceding week?

They weren't in any mainstream paper I could find.

[PublicAnimalNo9]

Yeah, expecting accurate facts from the mainstream media when dealing with highly charged ideological positions would be like expecting to find tolerance for gay people at Westboro Baptist.
The mainstream media(whether left or right wing) has proven time and time again that it prefers narrative over hard facts.

[Zipperfish]

It's worth noting that 2010 and 1998 were moderate to strong EL Nino years, whereas 2014 was neutral to weak. The 2014 temperatures were likely heavily influenced by surface sea state temperatures that were the warmest on record. The ten wamrest years on the instrumental record since about 1880 have all been since 1998.

[N_Fiddledog]

So here's something I imagine they'll be talking about soon.

If warmth in 2014 is attributed to the oceans, how is that being affected by human emitted CO2? I know there was a theory the missing heat responsible for the climate pause was hiding in the ocean, but as I understood it at the time they looked for that heat and couldn't find it.

Isn't there also some sort conveyor belt of ocean heat that circulates every 800 years or so?

What is the current hypothesis in the alarmosphere anyway? Is there anything like evidence of CO2 emitted heat hiding in the ocean then suddenly springing upward?

[andyt]

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

It's worth noting that 2010 and 1998 were moderate to dtorng EL Nino years,

OK, I give. WTF does dtorng mean? Sounds like an alien race, one with a cleft palate.

[Zipperfish]

andyt andyt:

Zipperfish Zipperfish:

It's worth noting that 2010 and 1998 were moderate to dtorng EL Nino years,

OK, I give. WTF does dtorng mean? Sounds like an alien race, one with a cleft palate.

ha ha ha. Ooops. "Strong."

[stratos]

so they are 68% sure it was not.

[Delwin]

So your beef is the 0.1 degree margin of error ? OK easy, 2014 was either the the warmest year on record or within 0.1 degrees of that mark ? Work for everyone ?

[stratos]

So you do agree it was foolish of them to declare that 2014 was the hottest year.

[N_Fiddledog]

Zip, you might be interested in this one.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/17/o ... te-report/

It's just Bob Tisdale - you know, the guy who blogs about ocean temps?

But if you scroll down to the graph about "equatorial sea surface anomalies" you'll see he makes a supported argument for this...

$1:

In other words, the sea surface temperature data indicate El Niño conditions existed for most of the year, but not in the region that NOAA uses to define an El Niño.

[snip]

Therefore, NOAA has omitted the fact that data indicate El Niño conditions existed along the equatorial Pacific, outside of the region they use as an ENSO index, so they could claim ENSO “conditions remained neutral in this region during the entire year and the globe reached record warmth despite this.”

[Delwin]

No there was nothing wrong with the reporting. If the temperature recorded was 0.02C warmer than the previous record, then it was in fact the warmest year recorded. That there is a 1.0 degree margin of error is irrelevant because the same margin existed in 2010, so in fact it could have been as much as 1.02 degrees warmer. The recorded temperature is what broke the record.

What are we nitpicking here?

[N_Fiddledog]

Zip, I think the reason people want to make an issue of El Nino is because it's a natural phenomena rather than something that might be explained by human emitted carbon dioxide. Is that correct?