tritium tritium:
Lemmy Lemmy:
Your chances of winning are not improved by purchasing the ticket.
Sure they are, because there is a 100% chance that you are not going to win if you don't buy a ticket.
I said "at any reasonable confidence level." We set confidence levels in statistics (95%, 97.5%, 99%, etc). Even at a 99.999% confidence level (which is WELL beyond any normal confidence level) your probability of winning is not improved by holding a ticket.
tritium tritium:
There is a 1 in 29 million chance of winning when you do buy a ticket.
Nope. Not even close. Your odds of winning are 1 in (49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44), which equals 1 in 10,068,000,000 (roughly 1 in 10 billion).
We can attach money values to calculate expected return. A $5 ticket gives you a 1 in 10B chance at $50M, which means your expected return on a $5 investment is about a 5th of a cent. Not sound financial strategy.
