herbie herbie:
How Conservative of you.
Thinking we can't do two things at the same time.
I've tried being positive, but after seeing 40+ years of low defence spending, I'm highly skeptical of any politician who promises to fund DND.
Canadians talk a big game, but historically when the bar tab came due, they mumbled and ran to the washroom.
The Liberals haven't been big supporters of DND since the days of Pierre Trudeau, and they have typically cut spending after they take over from a conservative government. Trudeau and Chretien seriously cut spending after taking office. JT has so far bucked the trend set by his predecessors, but hasn't really increased defence spending seriously either. His increases are barely about inflation and only partially cover the huge capital investments (ships, planes, etc.) we have coming in the near future.
Likewise, conservative leaders have promised big, big bucks for defence, but balked when they saw the price tag. Mulroney promised us a Polar 1 icebreaker, 8-12 nuclear-powered subs, 6 more navy frigates, new tanks, new ASW helicopters, etc., but as soon as the Berlin Wall fell, he cancelled all of it except the ASW choppers, so he could spend it social programs and boosting the economy. Harper did the same thing in 2006, promising all sorts of big spending on the military, from a new Arctic base, 3 big armed icebreakers, new supply ships, new trucks, new tanks, etc. He started out with some of it, but when it didn't get him a majority in 2008, he dialed most of it back and delayed and delayed most of the 'Canada First' programs. HE delayed the AORs so long that they rusted out and had to be de-commissioned before we even had a blueprint for the new ship. When he did spend, he spent it all on supporting the mission in Afghanistan, with zero long term planning. He bought the Globemasters and some new Hercs, but then didn't send them Afghanistan because it was cheaper to rent a Ukrainian transport plane than actually operate our own. He balked at getting new choppers for Afghanistan, then after six years he decided to buy Chinook helos, which arrived AFTER we left Afghanistan because we were so far down the queue. Then prior to the 2015 election, when he needed a surplus to show he was a 'fiscal conservative', he clawed back a few billion from DND and Veteran's Affairs to get one.
Now the Liberals have signed an agreement with the NDP, whom have clearly stated they don't support meeting the 2% of GDP goal for defence spending we agreed to a decade ago. So the government will add a few bucks and act like it's a fortune, but either way, it won't be enough to act as a security guarantor for Ukraine.
So yeah, I'm skeptical of Canada's ability to walk and chew bubblegum at the same time on defence, and certainly not as a guarantor of Ukraine's security.
To act as a guarantor, we would have to build an elite, air-mobile rapid response battlegroup (maybe even a brigade), and then base it in Europe long term. Equipment-wise, we lack strong artillery, air defence, and other supporting arms to make such a group a serious deterrent. So we'd need to spend a billion or two to equip this new force, with tanks, SP arty and MLRS, SAMs, etc. Even if we dropped another alliance commitment (like the battlegroup we have stationed in Latvia right now), we still don't have the manpower, nor do we have a base (and infrastructure to support one) in Europe. That would cost another couple billion dollars per year just to maintain.
So while Zelensky may want us onboard, we won't be there in any really meaningful way because we won't commit the resources necessary to do it.